2001—2023年我国煤矿瓦斯事故统计分析及演进趋势研究

Statistical analysis and evolution trend of coal mine gas accidents in China from 2001 to 2023

为了解我国煤矿瓦斯事故发生规律及演进趋势,通过国家矿山安全监察局等官方渠道整理了我国煤矿瓦斯事故资料并进行统计分析,研究了2001—2023年我国煤矿瓦斯事故的规律及演进趋势,分析了瓦斯事故及死亡人数变化的原因。结果表明,2001—2023年我国煤矿共发生瓦斯伤亡事故3538起,死亡15441人,事故发生起数及死亡人数总体呈下降趋势,这与国家对煤矿瓦斯事故的重视程度密切相关;瓦斯事故平均死亡人数是煤矿事故平均死亡人数的2.1倍,瓦斯事故百万吨死亡率与煤炭产量呈现明显负相关;瓦斯事故的偶然性给预测带来一定的难度,通过时间序列模型预测2024年我国煤矿瓦斯事故及死亡人数分别为5.2起、17人,2025年我国煤矿瓦斯事故及死亡人数分别为4.5起、14人,不排除偶然因素。

In order to understand the occurrence law and evolution trend of coal mine gas accidents in China,the data of coal mine gas accidents in China were sorted out and statistically analyzed through official channels such as the National Mine Safety Administration.The law and evolution trend of coal mine gas accidents in China from 2001 to 2023 were studied,and the causes of gas accidents and deaths were analyzed.The results show that there were 3538 gas accidents in coal mines in China from 2001 to 2023,and 15441 people died.The number of accidents and the number of deaths showed a downward trend,which was closely related to the country′s emphasis on coal mine gas accidents.The average number of deaths in gas accidents is 2.1 times the average number of deaths in coal mine accidents.The mortality rate of million tons of gas accidents is negatively correlated with coal production.The contingency of gas accidents brings some difficulties to the prediction.The time series model predicts that the number of coal mine gas accidents and deaths in China in 2024 will be 5.2 and 17 respectively,and the number of coal mine gas accidents and deaths in China in 2025 will be 4.5 and 14 respectively,and the accident factors are not excluded.