中国城市多中心结构及其经济绩效研究

The polycentric structure and its economic performance of China's cities

基于2010年和2020年LandScan高分辨率全球人口分布数据和全国人口普查数据,探讨了中国地级及以上城市的多中心结构、城市规模与经济绩效间的关系。首先运用ESDA方法测度了城市多中心指数;接着运用两阶段最小二乘法系统分析了多中心结构对经济绩效的促进作用并探讨了多中心结构对经济绩效的影响在不同城市规模上的差异,最后论证讨论了本研究与之前多中心结构绩效研究的一致性与差异。研究发现:①中国城市正朝向多中心结构发展。②多中心结构与更大的城市规模均能正向促进经济绩效的提升。③多中心结构对经济绩效的影响在不同规模城市之间存在明显差异,规模较小的城市影响不显著,规模较大的则能显著促进经济绩效的提升,但随着城市规模的进一步扩大,正向促进效应将会降低。④资本投入、制度因素、产业结构、交通水平、对外经贸水平均能在不同程度上对经济绩效提升产生正向促进效用。③互联网、通信和交通水平的提升能对多中心结构的经济绩效起到正向促进作用。研究认为,制定城市空间战略应更多地关注城市自身规模和发展阶段,立足于城市现状,合理推行多中心发展战略;城市空间发展应综合考虑城市特质,因地制宜、合理规划。

Based on the 2010 and 2020 LandScan high-resolution global population distribution data as well as the sixth and seventh national census data,this article explores the relationship between polycentric structure,city size and economic performance of China's cities at prefecture level and above.Firstly,the ESDA method is used to identify urban centers,and two strategies are used to measure the urban polycentricity index;The promotion effect of polycentric structure on economic performance was systematically analyzed by two-stage least squares using multiple instrumental variables,and the differences in the impact of polycentric structure on economic performance across city sizes were explored;And finally the consistency and differences between the present paper and the previous papers in terms of the economic performance of the polycentric structure are demonstrated and discussed,and the method of adding interaction terms is used for the demonstration.It is found that:(1)China's cities are developing towards a polycentric structure between 2010 and 2020;(2)Both polycentric structure and larger city size can positively promote economic performance,and the conclusions are robust after the tests of replacing explanatory variables,explanatory variables,and shrinking the sample;(3)The impact of polycentric structure on economic performance differs significantly across city sizes,with smaller cities having insignificant impacts,while larger cities can significantly promote economic performance,but the positive promotion effect will be reduced as the size of the city expands;(4)Capital investment,institutional factors,industrial structure,transportation level,and foreign trade and economic level can positively promote economic performance to different degrees;(5)Improvements in the level of internet,communication and transportation all contribute positively to the economic performance of the polycentric structure,which can help to understand the differences between the findings of this paper and those of previous papers.This paper concludes that the formulation of urban spatial strategy should pay more attention to the city's own scale and development stage,based on the current situation of the city,and reasonably implement the multi-center development strategy;Urban spatial development should comprehensively consider the characteristics of the city,and adapt to local conditions and rational planning.