“双碳”战略下低碳经济与高质量发展协同效应:以京津冀城市群为例

Research on the Synergistic Effect of Low-carbon Economy and High-quality Development Under the“Dual-carbon”Strategy:A Case Study of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Urban Agglomeration

推动低碳经济与高质量发展的高效协同,对于如期实现“双碳”战略具有重要意义.以京津冀城市群13个城市为研究对象,构建耦合协调度模型、面板向量自回归模型与因子分析模型,探究2006~2021年低碳经济与高质量发展耦合协同的时空分异与驱动机制.结果表明:①从时间视角来看,京津冀城市群耦合协同度缓慢上升且仍处于轻度失调状态,从空间视角来看,协同效应形成了典型的以北京和天津为核心的“核心-圈层”结构格局;②低碳经济与高质量发展间存在协同互促效应,但这种效应具有一定的滞后性且长期来看会逐渐减弱;③从驱动力来看,经济发展驱动和资源利用驱动的作用要显著强于科技创新驱动.虽然研究期内驱动力总体在不断提升,但在空间分布上仍存在较大差距,需要因地制宜强化驱动力的作用.

Promoting the efficient synergy between low-carbon economy and high-quality development is of great significance for achieving the“dual carbon”strategy on schedule.Taking the panel data from 13 cities of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration from 2006 to 2021 as the research subjects,the coupling coordination degree model,panel vector autoregressive model,and factor analysis model were constructed to explore the spatial and temporal differentiation and driving mechanism of coupling and coordination between low-carbon economy and high-quality development.The results showed that:①From a temporal perspective,the degree of coupling and coordination in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration had been slowly increasing but remained in a state of mild imbalance.From a spatial perspective,the synergistic effect formed a typical‘core-sphere’structure with Beijing and Tianjin as the core.②There was a synergistic effect between low-carbon economy and high-quality development,but this effect had a certain lag and would gradually weaken in the long run.③From the perspective of the driving force,the role of economic development and resource utilization was significantly stronger than that of scientific and technological innovation.Although the overall driving force during the study period was constantly improving,there was still a big gap in spatial distribution,and it is necessary to strengthen the role of driving force according to local conditions.