中国钢铁行业碳排放:达峰情景与中和路径

Carbon Emission for China's Iron and Steel Industry:Peak Scenarios and Neutralization Pathways

首先采用广义迪氏指数分解法(GDIM)分析2001~2020年中国钢铁行业碳排放变化影响因素,进而借助蒙特卡洛模拟对2021~2035年碳排放演化趋势进行动态情景模拟,旨在探究钢铁行业未来的碳达峰情景以及行之有效的碳中和实施路径.结果表明:①经济产出和粗钢产量是钢铁行业碳排放最主要的促增因素;在促降因素中,产出碳强度效果最为显著,其次为产量碳强度,吨钢能耗和能源产出率的促降效应尚不明显.②基准情景(BAU)、低碳情景(L)和强化情景(S)下钢铁行业均能实现碳达峰,达峰时间依次为2030年、2025年和2020年.

To explore the future carbon emission peak scenarios of Chinas iron and steel industry as well as the effective pathways for carbon emission neutrality,the generalized Divisia index method(GDIM)was first used to analyze the influencing factors of carbon emission changes from 2001 to 2020,and then Monte Carlo simulation was used to conduct a dynamic scenario simulation of the carbon emission evolution trends from 2021 to 2035.The results showed that:①Economic output and crude steel production were the most important factors contributing to the increase in carbon emission in the iron and steel industry;among the factors contributing to the decrease,the carbon intensity of economic output had the most significant effect,followed by the carbon intensity of production,and the energy consumption per ton of steel and the energy output rate did not have a significant effect on the decrease in carbon emissions.②Under the scenario BAU,scenario L,and scenario S,the iron and steel industry could achieve carbon emission peaking in 2030,2025,and 2020,respectively.