基于3类空间变化的阿克苏河流域碳排放轨迹及生态环境效应

Carbon Emission Trajectory and Eco-environment Effects in the Aksu River Basin Based on Agriculture-town-ecological Space Changes

干旱区内陆河流域生态本底脆弱敏感但生态区位非常重要,针对该类地区科学评估人工绿洲扩张引起的农业、城镇和生态“3类空间”变化引起的碳排放和生态环境效应问题,对于把握各土地利用类型的碳排放特征、制定土地利用减排策略、促进生态文明建设、优化国土空间格局具有重要意义.以新疆干旱区内陆河流域阿克苏河流域为研究对象,基于土地利用数据和社会经济数据,采用碳排放系数法测算土地利用碳排放,利用空间自相关分析法和标准差椭圆分析阿克苏河流域3类空间碳排放的空间演化特征,基于生态环境质量指数和生态贡献率探究阿克苏河流域3类空间变化对生态环境效应的影响.结果表明:①农业空间和城镇空间规模呈持续上升趋势,生态空间总体规模缩小.农业空间和城镇空间提供的碳源呈持续上升趋势,生态空间提供的碳汇呈先上升后下降的趋势,总体呈下降趋势;②流域净碳排放和3类空间提供的碳排放具有空间正相关性,流域碳排放的重心在总体上除生态空间向西南移动,其他空间及净碳排放均向东南移动;③流域内生态环境质量指数呈先上升后下降,总体呈下降趋势,1990~2000年生态环境质量总体好转,2000~2010年生态环境质量总体严重恶化,2010~2020年生态环境质量总体缓慢恶化.

Due to the expansion of artificial oases in these areas,scientific assessment of the carbon emission and eco-environment effects caused by changes in agriculture,towns,and ecological space is of great significance in grasping the carbon emission characteristics of various land use types,formulating land use emission reduction strategies,promoting the construction of ecological civilization,and optimizing the spatial pattern of the national territory.Based on land use data and socio-economic data,taking the inland river basin of the arid zone of the Xinjiang-Aksu River Basin as the research object,the carbon emission coefficient method was used to measure land-use carbon emissions,and spatial autocorrelation analysis and standard deviation ellipse were used to analyze the spatial evolution characteristics of carbon emissions from agriculture-town-ecological space in the Aksu River Basin.Based on the eco-environment quality index and ecological contribution rate,the impact of the agriculture-town-ecological space transformation on the eco-environment effects in the Aksu River Basin was explored.The results showed that:①The scale of agricultural space and town space continued to rise,while the overall scale of ecological space was shrinking.The carbon source provided by agricultural space and town space showed a continuous upward trend,while the carbon sink provided by ecological space showed a trend of first increasing and then decreasing,with an overall downward trend.②There was a positive spatial correlation between the net carbon emissions and the carbon emissions provided by the agriculture-town-ecological space.The center of gravity of carbon emissions in the basin generally moved to the southwest except for the ecological space,whereas the other space and net carbon emissions moved to the southeast.③The eco-environment quality index in the basin increased first and then decreased and generally showed a downward trend.From 1990 to 2000,the ecological environment quality improved overall;from 2000 to 2010,it deteriorated severely;and from 2010 to 2020,it deteriorated slowly.