甘青地区碳减排潜力分析及绿色发展路径探讨

Analysis of Carbon Emission Reduction Potential and Discussion on the Green Development Path in Gansu-Qinghai Regions

甘青地区能源资源富集、生态环境脆弱,面临着绿色低碳转型与经济高质量协调发展问题.立足甘青地区实际,深入分析其碳排放特征,构建碳排放与人口、经济、能源和政策之间的系统动力学模型,明晰碳排放各要素之间的关系,据此探讨未来绿色发展路径.结果显示:①近年来甘青地区碳排放总量及人均碳排放量均呈现不断上升趋势,从能源结构看,煤炭消费是最主要排放源,从部门贡献看,工业部门贡献最大.②与基准情景相比,到2030年,优化与强化情景下甘肃碳排放可分别降低14%和25%,同期青海碳排放分别降低26%和38%.③与优化情景相比,到2030年,在结构强化、规模强化、技术强化和意识强化情景下,甘肃碳排放可分别降低5.39%、3.53%、2.74%和0.74%,同期青海碳排放分别降低7.43%、5.67%、2.89%和0.26%.④根据甘青地区资源禀赋,强化政策引领推动绿色低碳发展、加快产业转型升级助力高质量发展、推动生态保护与减污增汇协同发展等政策措施有助于推进地区实现“双碳”愿景.

The energy resources are rich,and the ecological environment is fragile in Gansu-Qinghai regions,which are facing problems in the coordinated development of green as well as low carbon transformation and high-quality economy.Based on the reality of Gansu-Qinghai regions,this study deeply analyzed the characteristics of regional carbon emissions;constructed the system dynamics model between carbon emissions and population,economy,energy,and policy;clarified the relationship between them;and probed into the future green development path.The results showed that:①In recent years,the total and per capita carbon emissions in Gansu-Qinghai regions have been on the rise.From the perspective of energy structure,coal consumption was the most important source of carbon emissions,and the industrial sector had the greatest contribution from the point of view of sector contribution.②Compared with the baseline scenario,by 2030,carbon emissions of Gansu Province could be reduced by 14% and 25%,and those of Qinghai Province could be reduced by 26% and 38% under the optimized and strengthened scenarios,respectively.③Compared with the optimization scenario,by 2030,carbon emissions of Gansu Province could be reduced by 5.39%,3.53%,2.74%,and 0.74%,and those of Qinghai Province could be reduced by 7.43%,5.67%,2.89%,and 0.26% under the scenarios of structural,scale,technological,and awareness strengthening,respectively.④According to the resource endowment of Gansu-Qinghai regions,strengthening policies to promote green and low-carbon development,accelerating industrial transformation and upgrading to help high-quality development,and promoting the coordinated development of ecological protection and pollution reduction will help to promote the realization of“double carbon.”