数字支付对居民消费的影响研究——兼论数字支付与中国家庭债务

The Impact of Payment Digitization on Household Consumption—Also Discussing Digitalization of Payment and Household Debt

本文利用2019年中国家庭金融调查(CHFS)数据检验数字支付对居民消费的影响,探讨数字支付是否会通过促进消费扩大居民家庭债务。研究发现:第一,数字支付对居民消费具有明显的促进作用。第二,数字支付通过形成心理账户、降低交易成本、提高消费可得性和产生零边际成本的网络效应推动居民消费增加。第三,数字支付在促进居民消费的同时,导致居民信贷需求增加,在总量上提升了包括平台借贷、正规借贷和民间借贷在内的家庭债务规模,可能加剧居民家庭资产脆弱性,但发展消费支出增加并不存在债务扩张效应。数字支付在结构上更有可能提高居民平台借贷占比和正规借贷占比,而对民间借贷占比产生挤出效应。第四,数字支付的债务扩张效应会随着居民金融素养的提升而弱化。

Unlike the high consumption and high leverage household asset structure in developed countries and the low consumption and low leverage household asset structure in developing countries,the asset allocation of Chinese households ex⁃hibits a unique combination of low consumption and high leverage,which seriously restricts the high-quality development of the Chinese economy.Meanwhile,with the deep integration of digital technology and payment methods,digital payments have grown exponentially in China and have gradually become the main consumption payment method for residents.Based on the above facts,this article uses the 2019 data from the CHFS to examine the impact of digital payments on household consumption,and investigates whether digital payments lead to an expansion of household debt by promoting con⁃sumption.Research has found that,firstly,digital payments have a significant promoting effect on residents'consumption ex⁃penditure.Secondly,digital payments promote an increase in household consumption by creating psychological accounts,reduc⁃ing transaction costs,improving consumer accessibility,and generating network effects with zero marginal costs.Thirdly,while promoting consumption,digital payments have led to an increase in residents'demand for credit,resulting in a larger overall scale of household debt,which includes platform lending,formal lending,and private lending.This may exacerbate the vulner⁃ability of residents'household assets,although there appears to be no effect on debt expansion in the development of consumer spending.In addition,digital payments are more likely to increase the proportion of resident platform loans and formal loans structurally,while exerting a crowding out effect on the proportion of private loans.Fourthly,the debt expansion effect of digital payments weakens as residents'financial literacy improves.The conclusion of this article has two implications:on the one hand,promoting the popularization of digital payments,en⁃riching digital payment scenarios,and fully leveraging the promoting effect of digital payments on residents'consumption.On the other hand,continuously improving residents'financial literacy and effectively preventing debt expansion issues that may arise from digital payments.