财政分权、金融分权与资本深化

Fiscal Decentralization,Financial Decentralization and Capital Deepening

资本深化作为中国经济发展中逐渐凸显的一项重要特征,与当前劳动力充裕的经济现状相悖,研究其主导影响因素至关重要。本文将研究视角着眼于制度因素,基于2006—2021年278个地级市的面板数据,探讨了财政分权与金融分权对资本深化的影响。实证结果表明:财政分权和金融分权都助推了资本深化,并且资本深化具有明显“时间惯性”;考虑财政-金融联动特征后,两项分权制度对资本深化的联合影响为抑制,同时两项制度协同会增强资本深化程度。进一步研究发现:财政和金融分权对资本深化的影响具有短期空间溢出效应,但长期溢出并不明显;财政分权通过增强地方财力促进资本深化,金融分权则通过影响金融资源投放推动此过程;在不同城市区位、城市等级和改革时段,分权制度对资本深化水平的影响都具有明显异质性。本文从分权制度视角剖析了中国“过早的资本深化”谜题,对完善央地财政和金融分权制度改革,助力经济高质量发展具有重要参考价值。

With China’s remarkable and accelerating economic expansion,its underlying driving force has become a subject of intense academic debate.Nevertheless,there is a phenomenon that cannot be overlooked:the increase in capital cannot be matched with a corresponding increase in labor,known as“capital deepening.”Traditional economic theories often associate this phenomenon with the stage of full employment,but its premature appearance in China has raised many questions,such as what are the institutional factors behind it.This paper analyzes the impact of decentralization on capital deepening in China and provides an important perspective to answer this question.China’s decentralization system can be divided into two categories:fiscal decentralization and financial decentralization.In order to comprehensively measure their impact on capital deepening,we used panel data from 278 prefectural-level cities from 2006 to 2021,and empirically analyzed it with four different models:the dynamic panel model,the model with individual-specific slopes,the dynamic spatial Durbin model,and the two-regime spatial Durbin model.The findings are as follows.(1)Both fiscal decentralization and financial decentralization contribute to capital deepening.Furthermore,capital deepening exhibits a discernible degree of“time inertia.”(2)The impact of fiscal and financial decentralization on capital deepening is more pronounced when they function as“substitutes”than as“complements”between the channels.Furthermore,capital deepening is more pronounced when decentralization is synergistic.(3)In the short term,the decentralization system exerts a spatial spillover effect from neighboring cities to local areas,which is not significant in the long term.(4)The analysis of mediation effect demonstrates that fiscal decentralization indirectly promotes capital deepening through the mediating variable of local fiscal power,with financial decentralization partially through the investment of financial resources.(5)The effects of decentralization on capital deepening exhibit significant heterogeneity depending on the location,tier and reform stage of the cities.In light of the aforementioned findings,this paper posits that the first step should be to advance the reform of the fiscal decentralization system between the central and local governments in a systematic and methodical manner.Second,financial institutions should have greater autonomy and be more marketoriented.Third,the reform of the decentralization system must be tailored to local conditions,with differentiated reform policies implemented accordingly.