工业智能化、劳动力议价能力与就业形式演变——兼论社保降费的调节作用

Industrial Intelligence,the Bargaining Power of Labor Force and the Evolution of Employment Forms:On the Regulating Role of Social Security Fee Reduction

工业智能化的快速发展正在使得以正规就业为主的传统就业形式向多渠道就业并存的非正规就业形式转变,社会保障在转变过程中扮演着关键角色。本文基于劳动力技能异质性的视角,从理论和经验层面分析了工业智能化影响就业形式的理论机制,同时刻画了社保降费对二者间关系产生调节作用的内在逻辑。研究表明,工业智能化会通过改变异质性技能劳动力议价能力,促使低技能劳动力逐渐由正规就业形式向非正规就业形式转变,推动高技能劳动力更多地选择正规就业形式。社保降费能够弱化工业智能化对低技能劳动力非正规就业的促进作用,避免短期内过量低技能劳动力涌向非正规就业,对工业智能化与高技能劳动力就业形式之间的关系尚未产生显著的调节作用。本文具有深刻的政策含义,政府应着力提升劳动力,尤其是低技能劳动力议价能力,加强与工业智能化设备相匹配的“人机协作”技能培训,避免工业智能化替代效应的集中释放。社保降费是应对工业智能化就业冲击的重要政策手段,政府在有序推进社保降费的同时,应加快优化非正规就业社会保障顶层设计,推动社会保障体系与劳动力就业形式协同发展,确保劳动力合法权益得到保障,最终实现扩大就业容量、增进民生福祉的目标。

With machine replacement becoming a key way for enterprises to cope with the declining demographic dividends and seize technological commanding heights,the structural contradiction of the labor market is becoming more and more prominent,and informal employment is becoming an important way to alleviate the employment pressure.Given the relative lack of social security for informal employment in China,it is undoubtedly of great theoretical and practical significance to effectively avoid the potential risk associated with the fast-changing forms of labor employment in the era of industrial intelligence.This paper includes industrial intelligence,social security fee reduction and labor employment forms into a unified theoretical analysis framework,and reveals the internal logic of the evolution of labor employment forms.The main findings are as follows.First,while accelerating the transfer of low-skilled labor from formal to informal forms of employment,industrial intelligence will push high-skilled labor to choose more formal employment forms.Second,social security fee reduction can have a“bottoming-out effect”on low-skilled labor,weakening the effect of industrial intelligence on promoting informal employment for low-skilled labor,while without a significant moderating effect for high-skilled labor.Third,industrial intelligence will weaken the bargaining power of low-skilled labor and enhance that of high-skilled labor.Fourth,the promoting effect of industrial intelligence on the informal employment of low-skilled labor is more significant in rural households and coastal areas,and that on the formal employment of high-skilled labor is more significant in the urban households,Southwest and Northwest regions.This paper has profound policy implications.For example,the government should focus on improving the bargaining power of low-skilled labor and continue to reduce social security fees and improve the social security system for informal employment,so as to create conditions for low-cost and low-risk transitions of different forms of labor employment.The possible marginal contributions of this paper lie in the following three aspects.First,it expands the research perspective by developing an analytical framework in which industrial intelligence affects the employment form by changing the bargaining power of low-skilled and high-skilled labor,and provides a scientific basis and policy insights for understanding the evolution of their form of employment in the era of industrial intelligence.Second,taking into account China’s social realities,it incorporates social security fee reduction into the analytical framework and analyzes its positive role in the evolution of labor employment forms in the era of artificial intelligence,which helps the government promote the smooth transition of labor employment forms,and accelerates the construction of a social security system that matches the evolution of employment forms.Third,at the empirical level,this paper scientifically measures the core variables of individual labor force,such as the employment form,the degree of participation in insurance and the bargaining power,which closely corresponds to the theoretical analysis,so as to verify the proposed hypotheses.