基于高铁客运替代效应的碳排放测度

Assessment of Carbon Emissions Based on Substitution Effect of High-Speed Railway

为实现低碳交通,本文基于乘客出行行为和高铁替代效应的视角,分析交通运输碳排放的微观机理。通过问卷调查获取乘客出行行为的影响因素,运用描述性统计和交叉表分析乘客出行行为,建立Logit模型计算2017年和2018年渝贵客运通道上各出行模式的客流分担率,采用IPCC(2006)自下而上方法分析高铁客运替代效应对碳排放的影响。结果表明:乘客职业类别、收入水平以及交通方式属性对乘客出行行为产生显著影响;高铁开通导致普通火车、客车和私家车客流分担率分别减少了12.07%、10.01%和14.37%,并带来了显著的碳减排效应,2018年渝贵铁路替代效应减少了1375.59吨碳排放量。

In order to realize low-carbon transportation,this study aims to analyze the microcosmic mecha⁃nism of transportation carbon emissions from the perspective of passenger travel behavior and the high-speed rail substitution effect.Through a comprehensive approach,we investigate the influencing factors of pas⁃senger travel behavior by conducting a questionnaire survey,and use descriptive statistics and crosstabulation to analyze passenger travel behavior.Logit model is established to calculate the passenger flow sharing rate of each travel mode on the Yugui Passenger Transport Corridor in 2017 and 2018,using IPCC(2006)Bottom-up approach to analyze the impact of high-speed rail passenger substitution effect on carbon emis⁃sions.The findings reveal that:various factors,including passenger occupation category,income level,and the attributes of transportation modes,significantly influence passenger travel behavior.The opening of high-speed rail leads to noticeable reductions in the passenger flow share of ordinary trains,passenger cars,and private cars,amounting to 12.07%,10.01%,and 14.37%respectively.This substitution effect has resulted in a significant reduction in carbon emissions.In 2018,the Yugui Railway achieved a substantial carbon emission reduction of 1,375.59 tons.