美国货币政策不确定性、中国经济韧性与市场间叠加效应

US Monetary Policy Uncertainty,China's Economic Resilience and Additive Effe among Markets

本文首先梳理货币政策不确定性的传导机制和市场互动理论,并运用SV-TVP-FAVAR模型分析美国货币政策不确定性对中国经济“三重”压力表征变量的冲击影响。进一步,基于“抵抗力”和“恢复力”双重视角测度美国货币政策不确定性冲击下不同市场的经济韧性,并运用TVP-VAR-DY模型考察不同市场经济韧性之间的叠加效应。研究表明:第一,美国货币政策不确定性大多呈现出负向冲击属性,不同市场具有“异质性”响应特征。第二,美国货币政策不确定性冲击下,不同市场经济变量表征出差异化缓释功效,不同市场经济韧性的阶段性特征和时点分布差异符合经济事实。第三,不同市场经济韧性之间存在正向叠加关系,且呈现市场异质和阶段差异特征,不同市场经济韧性之间的叠加效应能够提升中国经济韧性。

This article first reviews the transmission mechanism of monetary policy uncertainty and market interaction theory,and uses the SV-TVP-FAVAR model to analyze the impact of US monetary policy uncertainty on the“triple”pressure characterization variables.Furthermore,based on the dual perspectives of“resistance”and“resilience”,we measure the economic resilience of different markets under the uncertainty impact of US monetary policy,and use the TVP-VAR-DY model to examine the superposition effect of economic resilience among different markets.Research has shown that firstly,the uncertainty of US monetary policy mostly exhibits negative shock properties,and different markets have“heterogeneity”response characteristics.Secondly,under the impact of uncertainty in US monetary policy,different market economy variables characterize the mitigating effect of differentiation,and the stage characteristics and time distribution differences of resilience in different market economies are consistent with economic facts.Thirdly,there is a positive superposition relationship between economic resilience in different markets,which presents characteristics of market heterogeneity and stage differences.The superposition effect of economic resilience between different markets can enhance China's economic resilience.