长三角城市群机构养老时空演化机制研究

Spatial-temporal Evolution Mechanism of Institutional Elderly Care in the Yangtze River Delta Urban Agglomeration

基于地理本性构建理论分析框架,综合运用空间分析和因子探测方法探讨2001—2020年长三角城市群机构养老发展的时空变化规律,并揭示其形成机理。结果表明:(1)长三角城市群机构养老发展水平呈增长态势,但各类机构的发展程度与发展速度存在阶段性特征。(2)长三角城市群机构养老发展存在显著的空间相关性,整体空间分布趋于集聚,空间结构属于凝聚型。(3)长三角城市群机构养老的空间发展并不均衡,公办机构以中心城市为核心向外围蔓延,而民办机构空间分布的稳定性较强,集中于条件成熟的大城市。(4)长三角城市群机构养老的时空演化受复杂因素共同驱动,第二地理本性与第三地理本性主导的空间演化格局逐渐建立,第一地理本性等先天因素的导向作用渐趋多元。其中,经济水平和消费能力是区域机构养老发展的有效动能,自然环境和社会改造环境作为主要路径的同时对多维联动效应的发生具有推动作用。

Based on the theory of geographical nature,this paper constructs an analytical framework and uses spatial analysis and factor detection methods to analyze the temporal and spatial changes in the development of institutional elderly care in the Yangtze River Delta Urban Agglomeration from 2001 to 2020,and reveals its formation mechanism.The results show that:(1)The level of institutional elderly care development in the Yangtze River Delta Urban Agglomeration is increasing,but there are phased characteristics in the degree and speed of development among various institutions.(2)There is a significant spatial correlation in the development of institutional elderly care in the Yangtze River Delta Urban Agglomeration,with a overall spatial distribution tending towards agglomeration and a cohesive spatial structure.(3)The spatial development of institutional elderly care in the Yangtze River Delta Urban Agglomeration is uneven,with public institutions spreading outward from central cities,while private institutions have strong spatial stability and are concentrated in well-developed large cities.(4)The spatial-temporal evolution of institutional elderly care in the Yangtze River Delta Urban Agglomeration is driven by complex factors,with the spatial evolution pattern dominated by second and third geographical nature gradually established,and the guiding role of first geographical nature and other innate factors becoming increasingly diverse.Among them,economic level and consumption capacity are effective drivers for regional institutional elderly care development,while natural environment and social transformation environment serve as main paths and promote multidimensional linkage effects.