我国经济增长的收敛程度及其影响因素——基于偏最小二乘回归方法

The Convergence Degree of China’s Economic Growth and Its Influencing Factors——Based on Partial Least Squares Regression Method

从增速收敛视角出发,本文首先提出了经济增长收敛程度的测算方法;其次利用1978—2022年省级层面数据,探究了全国及各大区域收敛程度的时序演变特征;最后基于全国层面时间序列数据和偏最小二乘回归(PLSR)方法,实证检验了其主要影响因素。研究发现:(1)中国经济增长不仅具有收敛趋势,且收敛程度不断提高,改革开放至今省间增速差异收敛了近3/4,目前保持稳定;(2)不同区域的收敛水平差异明显,中部地区最低。三种区域划分视角下,东部地区收敛水平高于中西部地区,南方地区高于北方地区,经济大省高于非经济大省;(3)中国经济增长收敛程度变化是多因素共同作用的结果,其中物质资本积累的贡献程度最大,交通基础设施建设和数字经济发展的影响相对较弱,政府干预是唯一消极因素。本文的研究结论对准确认知我国目前所处的收敛阶段以及加速全国收敛进程具有重要参考价值。

From the perspective of growth convergence,this paper firstly proposes a method to measure the degree of economic growth convergence,secnondly explores the temporal evolution characteristics of the convergence degree of economic growth in the whole country and major regions by using the provincial-level data from 1978 to 2022,and lastly empirically teste the main influencing factors,based on the national level time series data and partial least squares regression(PLSR)method.The study found that:(1)China's economic growth not only has a convergence trend,but also the degree of convergence is constantly improving.Since the reform and opening-up policy started in 1978,the growth rate difference between provinces has converged by nearly 3/4,and it is basically stable at present.(2)The convergence level of different regions is obviously different,and the central region is the lowest.From the perspective of three regional divisions,the eastern region is higher than the central and western regions,the southern region is higher than the northern region,and the economic powerhouses is higher than the non-economic powerhouses.(3)The change of the convergence degree of China's economic growth is the result of the joint action of multiple factors.Among them,the contribution of material capital accumulation is the largest,the impact of transportation infrastructure construction and digital economic development is relatively weak,and government intervention is the only negative factor.The conclusions of this paper have important reference value for accurately understanding the current convergence stage of China and accelerating the convergence process of regional economic growth.