资本账户开放与经济高质量发展——来自全球115个经济体的经验证据

Capital Account Opening and High-quality Economic Development:Empirical Evidence from 115 Economies Worldwide

文章基于1996—2021年115个经济体的面板数据,从经济效率、经济稳定、经济结构、社会福利和绿色发展五个维度构建了全球国家层面的经济高质量发展指标评价体系,并实证检验了资本账户开放对经济高质量发展的影响及其作用机制。结果显示,资本账户开放能够促进经济高质量发展水平的提升,但同时也存在明显的国家类型异质性和地理区位异质性。接着进行分项指标回归,发现资本账户开放对经济高质量发展的促进作用主要源于其对经济效率、经济结构和社会福利三个方面的改善。进一步通过机制检验,可知资本账户开放可以通过促进双向直接投资、金融发展和经济全球化三个机制来驱动经济高质量发展。最后,调节效应检验结果表明,良好的制度环境能够强化资本账户开放对经济高质量发展的促进作用。这些结论有助于理解资本账户开放与经济高质量发展的关系,能够为中国以高水平对外开放推动经济高质量发展提供理论支撑与经验证据。

The article is based on panel data from 115 economies from 1996 to 2021,and constructs a global country-level evaluation system for high-quality economic development indicators from five dimensions:economic efficiency,economic stability,economic structure,social welfare,and green development.It also empirically tests the impact and mechanism of capital account openness on high-quality economic development.The results show that the opening of capital accounts can promote the improvement of high-quality economic development,but at the same time,there is also significant heterogeneity in country types and geographical locations.Sub-indicator regressions show that the promoting effect of capital account openness on high-quality economic development mainly stems from its improvement in three aspects:economic efficiency,economic structure,and social welfare.Further mechanism testing reveals that capital account openness can promote bilateral foreign direct investment,financial development,and economic globalization,thereby driving high-quality economic development.Finally,the moderating effect test results show that a good institutional environment can strengthen the role of capital account opening in promoting high-quality economic development.These conclusions help to understand the relationship between capital account openness and high-quality economic development,and provide theoretical support and empirical evidence for China to promote high-quality economic development through high-level opening-up.