气候变化对厦门市恙虫病发病影响的研究

Effects of climate change on scrub typhus in Xiamen

目的探讨厦门市气象因素对恙虫病发病的影响。方法收集厦门市2005-2023年的厦门市恙虫病和气象因素数据,采用Spearman相关性分析方法分析恙虫病发病与气象参数之间的相关关系,采用非线性回归法分析恙虫病与气象参数的数量关系。结果2005-2023年厦门市恙虫病发病呈先上升后下降的趋势,发病最高年份在2014-2016年,发病高峰季节集中在6-10月份。厦门市恙虫病月发病数与日最低气温(r=0.637,P<0.001)、日平均气温(r=0.627,P<0.001)、日最高气温(r=0.612,P<0.001)、日照时间(r=0.405,P<0.001)、平均相对湿度(r=0.346,P<0.001)及日降水量(r=0.207,P=0.002)呈正相关;与平均气压成负相关(r=-0.549,P<0.001);与平均风速无相关。厦门市恙虫病与气象指标模型回归方程为y=-206.229-11.042x_(1)+0.346x_(1)^(2)+6.266x_(2)-0.106x_(2)^(2)+5.704x_(3)-0.171x_(3)^(2)+0.502x_(4)+0.024x_(4)^(2)-0.667 x_(5)+0.006 x_(5)^(2)+0.190x_(6)-0.019x_(6)^(2)+0.184x_(7),决定系数为0.473。增加全市某大型公园人流量(x_(8))作为因变量纳入多元非线性回归分析,模型回归方程为y=-433.869-11.503x_(1)+0.381x_(1)^(2)+9.150x_(2)-0.197x_(2)^(2)+3.936x_(3)-0.132x_(3)^(2)+0.881x_(4)+0.035 x_(4)^(2)-1.048x_(5)+0.009x_(5)^(2)+0.186x_(6)-0.023x_(6)^(2)+0.421x_(7)+6.210×10^(-5)x_(8)-1.051×10-10 x_(8)^(2),决定系数为0.550。结论厦门市恙虫病发病与日最低气温、日平均气温、日最高气温、相对湿度、日降水量及平均气压等气象因素有关,不同气象因素对恙虫病发病影响有所不同。

This study was aimed at examining the influence of meteorological factors on scrub typhus in Xiamen.Scrub typhus monitoring data and meteorological factors were collected in Xiamen from 2005 to 2023.Spearman correlation analysis and nonlinear regression were used to analyze the correlation between scrub typhus incidence and meteorological factors.The incidence of scrub typhus first increased and subsequently decreased in Xiamen from 2005 to 2023.The highest incidence was between 2014 and 2016,and the peak incidence was from June to October.The monthly incidence of scrub typhus positively correlated with daily minimum temperature(r=0.637,P<0.001,daily average temperature(r=0.627,P<0.001),daily maximum temperature(r=0.612,P<0.001),sunshine duration(r=0.405,P<0.001),average relative humidity(r=0.346,P<0.001),and daily rainfall(r=0.207,P=0.002),and negatively correlated with average atmospheric pressure(r=-0.549,P<0.001),whereas no correlation was observed with the average wind speed in Xiamen.The regression equation of scrub typhus monthly incidence and meteorological parameters was y=-433.869-11.503x_(1)+0.381x_(1)^(2)+9.150x_(2)-0.197x_(2)^(2)+3.936 x_(3)-0.132x_(3)^(2)+0.881x_(4)+0.035x_(4)^(2)-1.048x_(5)+0.009x_(5)^(2)+0.186x_(6)-0.023x_(6)^(2)+0.421x_(7)+6.210×10^(-5)x_(8)-1.051×10-10 x_(8)^(2)in Xiamen,and the R^(2)was 0.473,thus indicating good model fit.Scrub typhus incidence correlated with the daily minimum average temperature,average temperature,daily maximum temperature,sunshine duration,daily rainfall,relative humidity,and average atmospheric pressure in Xiamen.Various meteorological factors had differing effects on scrub typhus.