西藏高原城市群道路交通系统韧性评估

Resilience assessment of the road traffic system in urban agglomerations on the Tibetan Plateau

评估西藏高原城市群道路交通系统韧性,有助于保障交通系统的稳定运行,帮助更快建成高原城市综合交通运输体系。基于西藏交通的特殊情况,文章从服务性、鲁棒性、安全性、可修复性、经济可持续性、自适应性入手选取15个指标,构建了贝叶斯网络模型,对6个高原城市2015到2021年的道路交通系统韧性进行评估。结果表明:西藏城市道路交通系统韧性整体呈现增强趋势,但面临着发展不平衡的问题:拉萨市韧性水平远高于其他市,日喀则、昌都市韧性增长较快,年平均值超过2.5%,林芝、山南和那曲市韧性一直处于较低的水平,且增长缓慢。敏感性分析结果指出,增强高原城市群道路交通系统韧性的首要措施是道路基础设施的建设。文章以韧性评估结果为依据,力求为促进西藏城市道路交通系统健康可持续发展提供有效参考。

Assessing the resilience of the road traffic system in the Tibetan highland urban agglomeration can ensure the stable operation of the transportation system and promote to build a comprehensive transportation system for high-land cities more quickly.Based on the special situation of transportation in Tibet,this paper selects 15 indicators from serviceability,robustness,safety,repairability,economic sustainability,and adaptability,and constructs a Bayesian network model to assess the road traffic systems in six plateau cities from 2015 to 2021.The results show that the re-silience of Tibet’s urban road traffic system shows an overall increasing trend,but it faces the problem of unbalanced development.the resilience level of Lhasa is much higher than that of other cities,and Shigatse and Chamdo grow rapidly with an annual average of more than 2.5%,while Nyingchi,Shannan,and Nagchu have been at a low level and growing slowly.The results of the sensitivity analysis point out that the primary measure to enhance the resil-ience of the road traffic system in the plateau urban agglomeration is the construction of road infrastructure.Based on the resilience assessment results,this paper aims to provide an effective reference for promoting the healthy and sus-tainable development of urban road traffic systems in Xizang.