集中供热系统能耗与碳排放综合分析及预测模型构建——以北京市集中供热为例

Building of a Comprehensive Analysis and Prediction Model of Energy Consumption and Carbon Emissions in District Heating Systems:A Case Study of District Heating in Beijing

本研究构建了1个全尺度的城市集中供热系统分析模型,该模型全面覆盖了从用户需求到热源侧的各个环节,综合考虑了建筑规模、供热规模、过程中的损失及运维能耗等关键因素,并对供热过程中的损失进行了精细化计算。此模型支持基于实测数据的动态更新,有效提升了其适用性与精度,并已成功集成到HCNM V1.0软件中。以北京市为案例,对2020至2035年的供热系统能耗与碳排放进行了预测分析,进而验证了模型的有效性。此研究不仅为北京市制定节能减排策略提供了科学依据,也为其他城市或区域规划和优化供热系统提供了宝贵参考。

This study developed a comprehensive city-wide district heating system analysis model that spans from user demands to the heat source side,incorporating key factors such as building scale,heating scale,process losses,and energy consumption for operation and maintenance,and conducted detailed calculations of heating process losses.The model supports dynamic updates based on actual measurements,significantly enhancing its applicability and accuracy.It has been successfully integrated into the software HCNM V1.0.A case study of Beijing was conducted to predict and analyze the energy consumption and carbon emissions of the heating system from 2020 to 2035,thus verifying the validity of the model.The study not only provides a scientific basis for formulating energy-saving and emission reduction strategies in Beijing but also offers valuable insights for the planning and optimization of heating systems in other cities or regions.