中国省域数字经济发展水平测度与时空差异及影响因素分析

Analysis on Measurement,Spatiotemporal Differences and Influencing Factors of Digital Economy Development Level in Chinese Provinces

基于2015-2021年中国的30个省(自治区、直辖市)面板数据,从数字基础设施、数字创新环境、数字治理、数字产业化、产业数字化5个维度构建综合评价指标体系;用熵值法客观测算各省数字经济发展水平,采用核密度估计和泰尔指数进行时空差异分析,以最优分层构建地理探测器对数字经济发展水平进行影响因素分析。结果表明:各省数字经济发展水平及分维度指标均明显增长;数字经济发展龙头地区在中国的东部,且低水平省份占比有下降趋势;与2015年相比,2021年30个省(自治区、直辖市)数字经济发展水平的总体差异、区域内差异、区域间差异均显著降低;考察期内数字经济发展水平分层异质性的影响因素按平均解释能力由强到弱依次为政府投入、经济水平、城镇化水平、人力资源及产业结构。

Based on panel data from 30 provinces(autonomous regions,municipalities directly under the Central Government)in China from 2015 to 2021,a comprehensive evaluation index system is constructed from the five dimensions of digital infrastructure,digital innovation environment,digital governance,digital industrialization,and industrial digitalization.The entropy method is employed to objectively measure the development level of the digital economy in each province.Kernel density estimation and Theil index are employed to analyze the spatial and temporal differences.The influencing factors of the development level of digital economy are analyzed by constructing the geographic detector with the optimal stratification.The results show that the development level of the digital economy and sub dimension indicators in each province have increased significantly.The leading regions of digital economy development are in the eastern part of China,and the proportion of provinces with low levels is declining.Compared with 2015,the overall difference,intra regional difference,and inter regional difference in the level of digital economy development in 30 provinces(autonomous regions,municipalities directly under the Central Government)in 2021 have significantly decreased.During the investigation period,the influencing factors of hierarchical heterogeneity in the digital economy development level,in order of average explanatory power from strong to weak,are government investment,economic level,urbanization level,human resources,and industrial structure.