中国农业绿色韧性的时空格局演化及影响因素研究

Evolution of Spatiotemporal Patterns and Influencing Factors of China's Agricultural Green Resilience

构建包括抵御力、恢复力、适应力、创新力和重构力5个维度的农业绿色韧性评价指标体系,运用熵值法测度2007~2021年中国30个省份的农业绿色韧性水平,借助空间马尔科夫链、地理探测器揭示其动态演变规律和影响因素。研究表明:2007~2021年中国农业绿色韧性水平呈小幅度上升趋势,但总体水平较低;空间上呈现“东部>中部>东北>西部”的分布格局。农业绿色韧性在转移过程中具有维持初始状态的“路径依赖”特征,同时存在“涓滴效应”,即与农业绿色韧性水平越高的省份邻接,其等级向上转移的概率也越大,但这种转移发生在相邻水平,不存在跨越式转移。农业绿色韧性水平的空间分异主要受科技创新能力和市场成熟程度驱动,各因素交互作用表现为双因素增强和非线性增强。据此,应强化对欠发达地区的扶持力度,加大农业领域研发投入,完善农产品市场体系,增强农业绿色韧性。

This paper constructs an evaluation index system of green resilience of agriculture with five dimensions,including resilience,recovery,adaptation,innovation and reconstruction,measures the level of agricultural green resilience of China's 30 provinces from 2007 to 2021 by using entropy weight method,and further reveals the dynamic evolution law and influencing factors with the help of spatial Markov chains and geographic detector.The green resilience level of China's agriculture from 2007 to 2021 shows a small upward trend,but the overall level is low.There is a spatial distribution pattern of"East>Central>Northeast>West".Agricultural green resilience is characterized by"path dependence"to maintain the initial state in the transfer process,as well as a"trickle-down effect",i.e.,the higher the level of agricultural green resilience with the neighboring provinces,the higher the probability of upward transfer,but this transfer occurs in the neighboring level,there is no leapfrog transfer.The spatial differentiation of agricultural green resilience level is mainly driven by scientific and technological innovation capacity and market maturity,and the interaction of the factors manifests itself as bivariate enhancement and nonlinear enhancement.Ultimately,this paper puts forward policy recommendations to enhance the agricultural green resilience in terms of strengthening support for backward areas,increasing R&D investment in the agricultural sector,and improving the market system for agricultural products.