安徽省基层卫生技术人员结构变迁及预测分析

Analysis of Structural Changes and Forecast of Primary Health Technicians in Anhui Province

目的:分析2015—2020年安徽省卫生技术人员变动趋势,并预测2021—2025年的人员数量,为优化卫生技术人员结构配置提供参考。方法:采用结构变动度和偏离份额法分析安徽省基层卫生机构卫生技术人员结构变动趋势,建立灰色模型[GM(1,1)]进行预测。结果:除了注册护士,各类卫生技术人员的结构变动值大多数时候出现不同程度的负值。注册护士的结构贡献率最大,其他人员次之。注册护士的总偏离分量(PD)始终>0,2018—2019年执业(助理)医师的PD为正值,技师的PD除了2017—2018年和2018—2019年为正值,其他年度皆为负值。2021—2025年各类卫技人员均处于增长趋势,医护比在2025年将达到1.0∶0.6。结论:安徽省基层卫生技术人员内部结构不均衡,数量增长缓慢。根据预测结果发现,医护比要求未达标,医师与药师比例较小,技师人数较少。建议应加强医师、护士资源的宏观调控,在顶层设计方面重视药师和技师的队伍建设,合理调整人员配置,优化人员结构。

Objective:To analyze the trend of changes of health technicians in Anhui Province from 2015 to 2020 and forecast their number from 2021 to 2025,so as to provide reference for optimizing the structural allocation of health technicians.Methods:The structural change degree and deviation share method were used to analyze the trend of structural change of health technicians in primary health institutions in Anhui Province,and a gray model GM(1,1)was established for prediction.Results:The value of structural change for all categories of health technicians,except registered nurses,showed negative values of varying degrees most of the time.Registered nurses had the largest structural contribution,followed by other personnel.In terms of the total deviation component,registered nurses were always larger than 0.Licensed(assistant)physicians became positive from 2018 to 2019.Technicians were positive from 2017 to 2018 and from 2018 to 2019,and negative in all other years.All types of health technicians are in a growth trend from 2021 to 2025,and the medical to nursing ratio will reach 1.0∶0.6 in 2025.Conclusion:The internal structure of primary health technicians in Anhui Province is unbalanced,and the number is growing slowly.The forecast finds that the requirement of medical and nursing ratio does not meet the standard,and the number of technicians was low.It is suggested that the macro regulation of physicians and nurses resources should be strengthened,and the team construction of pharmacists and technicians should be emphasized in the top-level design,so as to reasonably adjust the staffing and optimize the staff structure.