2019年对比1990年中国人群高温归因的疾病负担分析

Disease burden attributable to high temperature in Chinese population in 2019 compared with 1990

目的分析比较2019年较1990年中国人群中归因于高温的疾病负担变化情况。方法基于2019年全球疾病负担研究数据,提取1990年、2019年中国不同年龄、性别人群高温归因的死亡例数、死亡率、伤残调整寿命年(DALY)以及DALY率等指标,分析中国人群归因于高温暴露的疾病负担的变化趋势及其主要原因,并利用Joinpoint回归模型分析标化后的归因DALY率的变化趋势。结果相较于1990年,2019年我国高温归因的疾病死亡人数从1.07万增至1.39万,归因DALY从53.22万人年降至27.61万人年,标化死亡率和DALY率分别下降了35.25%和65.20%,男性的高温归因负担高于女性,70岁及以上年龄组人群高温暴露所致负担相对最重。2019年高温暴露归因负担的主要原因为慢性非传染性疾病,DALY负担最高的疾病为缺血性心脏病,标化DALY率为4.64/10万。结论中国人群归因于高温暴露的死亡负担绝对值仍在上升。需加强对男性、老年人群等高危人群的关注,加大环境保护力度,并有针对性地制定相关干预措施,进一步降低高温暴露所导致的疾病负担。

Objective To analyze and compare the change of disease burden attributed to high temperature in the Chinese population in 2019 compared with 1990.Methods Based on the global burden of disease study data in 2019,the number of deaths,mortality,disability-adjusted life years(DALY)and DALY rate attributable to high temperature in Chinese population of different ages and genders in 1990 and 2019 were extracted to analyze the changing trend of disease burden attributable to high temperature exposure in Chinese population and its main causes.The Joinpoint regression model was used to analyze the trend of changes in standardized attributable DALY rates.Results Compared with 1990,the number of disease deaths attributable to high temperature in China in 2019 increased from 10700 to 13900,and the attributable DALY decreased from 532200 to 276100 person-years.The standardized mortality and DALY rates decreased by 35.25%and 65.20%,respectively.The burden attributable to high temperature was higher in males than in females,and the burden was relatively heavier in the population aged 70 and above.In 2019,chronic non-communicable diseases were the main cause of the attributable burden of high temperature exposure,and ischemic heart disease had the highest DALY burden,with an age-standardized DALY rate of 4.64/100000.Conclusion The absolute death burden attributable to high temperature exposure in Chinese population is still increasing.It is necessary to pay more attention to high-risk groups such as men and the elderly,continue to strengthen environmental protection,and formulate relevant interventions in a targeted way to further reduce the disease burden caused by high temperature exposure.