2010—2023年湖北省手足口病流行病学特征及空间聚集性分析

Epidemiological characteristics and spatial clustering of hand,foot,and mouth disease in Hubei Province in 2010-2023

目的分析2010—2023年湖北省手足口病流行病学特征及空间聚集性,为防控工作提供依据。方法对2010—2023年湖北省手足口病监测数据进行描述性分析,使用ArcGIS 10.5软件在区县尺度上进行空间聚集性分析。结果2010—2023年湖北省共报告手足口病例1007600例,年均报告发病率为123.60/10万。总体上呈隔年高发的周期性特点。除个别年份外,每年有两个发病高峰,4~7月为第一高峰,10~12月为第二高峰,且季节指数提示第一高峰为流行季节。男女性别比为1.53∶1,病例以5岁以下儿童为主。2010—2023年手足口病报告发病率在区县尺度上均呈空间正相关(全局Moran′s I为0.15~0.76,P<0.05),热点区域主要集中在鄂西北和鄂东南地区,冷点区域主要在鄂中偏东地区。结论湖北省手足口病发病有明显的季节性和空间聚集性,鄂西北和鄂东南为重点防控区域,应进一步加强5岁以下重点人群和重点地区的防控工作,以有效减少病例的发生。

Objective To analyze the epidemiological characteristics and temporal spatial clustering of hand,foot,and mouth disease in Hubei Province from 2010 to 2023,and to provide evidence for formulating prevention and control measures.Methods Descriptive epidemiological method was used to analyze the surveillance data of hand,foot,and mouth disease of Hubei Province from 2010 to 2023,and spatial clustering analysis was conducted at the district/county level using ArcGIS 10.5 software.Results A total of 1007600 cases of hand,foot,and mouth disease were reported from 2010 to 2023,and the average annual incidence rate was 123.60/100000.Overall,it exhibited a cyclical pattern of high incidence every other year.Except for a few years,two peaks of incidence were observed each year,,with the first peak occurring between April to July and the second occurring in October to December,and the popular season was concentrated from April to July.Children aged<5 years were primarily affected,with a high incidence in male patients(1.53∶1).The incidence of hand,foot,and mouth disease showed a positive spatial autocorrelation(Moran′s I was between 0.15 to 0.76,P<0.05)at the district/county level.The hot spots were concentrated in the northwest and southeast of Hubei Province,and the cool spots were concentrated in the east of central Hubei Province.Conclusion The incidence of hand,foot,and mouth disease has obvious seasonality and spatial clustering in Hubei Province.The key prevention and control areas are concentrated in the northwest and southeast of Hubei.Enhanced prevention and control measures should be targeted on children under 5 years old and key areas to effectively reduce the occurrence of cases.