卡洛特水电站入库流量平滑修正方法研究

Smoothing correction method for inflow into Karot Hydropower Station

巴基斯坦卡洛特水电站采用静库容反推计算的入库流量存在“锯齿”问题。为此,量化分析了卡洛特水库水位观测误差对入库流量的影响,并利用3点线性平滑法、5点线性平滑法、7点线性平滑法、五点三次函数拟合平滑法,对卡洛特水电站2023年8月和9月入库流量中的“锯齿”波动进行平滑。结果表明:卡洛特水电站正常蓄水位461 m时,0.01 m的水位误差造成的流量误差为15 m^(3)/s,超过允许入库流量预报误差(13 m^(3)/s),库水位观测误差对流量预报工作存在不利影响。五点三次平滑算法可以有效消除反推入库流量数据中的“锯齿”干扰成分,更全面地保留原入库流量的水文特征,平滑结果较理想。研究成果可为调节库容小、入库流量预报精度要求高的中小水库反推入库流量提供参考。

The"jagged"issue exists in the inflow into the Karot Hydropower Station calculated by reversing the static reservoir capacity.We quantitatively analyzed the impact of the Karot Reservoir′s water level measurement error on the inflow and smoothed the jagged fluctuations in the inflow for August and September in 2023 by using the 3-point linear smoothing method,5-point linear smoothing method,7-point linear smoothing method,and the cubical smoothing algorithm with 5-point approximation.The results showed that when the normal storage level of Karot Hydropower Station was 461 meters,a water level error of 0.01 meters caused a flow error of 15 m^(3)/s,exceeding the allowable inflow forecast error(13 m^(3)/s).The reservoir water level measurement error had an adverse effect on the flow forecasting work.The quintic smoothing algorithm can effectively eliminate the"jagged"interference components in the reverse-calculated inflow data,comprehensively retain the hydrological characteristics of the original inflow,and the smoothing results were relatively more ideal.The research results can provide a reference for the small and medium reservoirs with small adjustable capacities and high requirements for inflow forecasting accuracy in reversing the inflow calculation.