承接产业转移政策能够提升转入城市经济韧性吗?

Can Undertaking Industrial Transfer Policies Enhance the Economic Resilience of the Undertake Cities?

基于2007—2021年中国278个城市面板数据,运用渐进双重差分法探究了国家级承接产业转移示范区建设对城市经济韧性的多维政策效应。研究结果表明,国家级承接产业转移示范区的设立能提升城市经济韧性。该结论经过一系列稳健性检验后依旧成立。机制研究结果表明,提升创新水平、促进企业集聚和优化要素结构是国家级承接产业转移示范区强化城市经济韧性的主要渠道。进一步分析结果表明,国家级承接产业转移示范区表现出一定的“益贫”特质,其对非资源型、胡焕庸线西侧和低市场化水平的城市经济韧性的提升效果更加明显。研究结论验证了示范区政策对提升城市经济韧性的积极作用,为中国经济强韧性背后的制度优势这一论断提供了新的经验证据。

In the context of the increasingly complex external environment and the increasing internal“triple pressures”,as a significant strategic starting point to achieve high-quality,coordinated regional development,the construction of national-level industrial transfer demonstration zones serves as an“empowerment and cohesion”for urban development.The strategic significance is more prominent.This article uses panel data from 278 cities in China from 2007 to 2021 to construct a quasi-natural experiment using the national-level industrial transfer demonstration zone as the object.It uses a multi-period difference-in-differences(DID)model to test the enabling effect of the demonstration zone construction.Firstly,the research hypotheses of this paper are presented in the theoretical analysis section.Further,in the empirical analysis section,in addition to the benchmark regression analysis,additional robustness tests such as the parallel trend test and the PSM-DID test are conducted to ensure the reliability of the findings.Then,the paper deeply explores the mechanism by which national-level industrial transfer demonstration zones improve urban economic resilience and explores the heterogeneity of the enabling effects of national-level industrial transfer demonstration zones based on the three dimensions of resource endowment,geographical location,and marketization level.The results show that:firstly,the establishment of demonstration zones for receiving industries has a significant contribution to the economic resilience of cities;secondly,the policies of the demonstration zones can effectively improve the economic resilience of cities through the three paths of improving the level of urban innovation,enterprise agglomeration and optimisation of the factor structure;thirdly,the policies of the demonstration zones for receiving industries have the qualities of the policy of‘benefiting the poor’to a certain degree,which has a more significant role in enhancing the economic resilience of non-resource-type cities,cities on the west side of the Hu Huanyong Line and cities with low levels of marketisation.The possible marginal contributions are as follows.First,it tests the enabling effect of undertaking industrial transfer demonstration zones on urban economic resilience,deepens the understanding of the causal relationship between industrial transfer policies and economic resilience,and provides insights into the reasons behind China’s economic resilience.This assertion of institutional policy advantages offers new empirical evidence.Second,under the demonstration areas were traced from three channels:improving the level of innovation,promoting enterprise agglomeration,and optimizing the factor structure.The mechanism by which policies affect urban economic resilience is more consistent with the actual needs of demonstration zone construction and future development trends.Third,unlike the existing literature that only conducts heterogeneous discussions from the single dimension of“East,Middle,and West”,this article combines the differences in urban development methods and examines the undertaking of industrial transfer from the three dimensions of resource endowment,geographical location,and marketization level.The dynamic heterogeneity of the demonstration area s impact on urban economic resilience is conducive to high-level planning and construction to undertake industrial transfer concentrated areas and optimize industrial spatial layout.