数字孪生丹江口水质安全建设实践与思考

Practices and thinking of water quality safety construction of digital twin Danjiangkou

丹江口水库作为南水北调中线工程水源地,做好其水质安全保障工作是保证南水北调中线工程安全平稳运行的重要前提。随着信息化、智能化发展,数字孪生技术在水库水质安全管理中应用前景广阔。阐述了丹江口水库水质安全保障工作重要性及传统管理方式的短板,结合水库水质管理工作需求提出数字孪生丹江口水质安全板块涉及的核心技术体系,包括水质动态全域高精度协同感知及融合治理技术、基于“数据+机理”模型耦合的水质安全模型库以及水质“四预”技术等。通过2024年汛期青山水质自动监测站总磷升高及突发水污染事件预测预演等应用实践,展示了数字孪生丹江口建设应用效果,同时指出了现有系统在预报精度、预见期、数据集成、模型泛化能力以及“四预”业务应用等方面尚存的不足和短板,并围绕技术升级优化、集成拓展等重点方向,提出了数字孪生丹江口水质安全板块后续建设思路及趋势展望。

As the water source and a basic prerequisite for safe and stable operation of the South-to North Water Diversion Project,the Danjiangkou Reservoir must ensure its water quality.Along with development of informatization and intelligence,digital twin technology has a broad applicable prospect for ensuring water quality and reservoir management.Discussions are made on the importance of ensuring water quality safety of the the Danjiangkou Reservoir and weakness of traditional management approaches.A core technology system involved in digital twin Danjiangkou water quality safety block is introduced based on the needs of water quality management in the reservoir,including high-precision collaborative perception and fusion governance technology for water quality dynamics,a model base for water quality safety based on“data+mechanism”model coupling and“Forecast,early warning,rehearsal and plan”technology.Practical application of automatic monitoring station for total phosphorus increase and sudden water pollution event prediction during the 2024 flood season in Qingshan demonstrates the effectiveness of digital twin Danjiangkou construction.At the same time,short board and weakness in terms of forecasting accuracy,prediction period,data integration,capability of model generalization and“Forecast,early warning,rehearsal and plan”business application are discussed.Focusing on key directions of technological upgrading,optimization and integrated expansion,ideas for following works of building water quality safety block for digital twin Danjiangkou and future prospect are proposed.