基于贝叶斯网络的城市地震次生灾害情景演化分析

Scenario Evolution Analysis of Urban Earthquake Secondary Disasters Based on Bayesian Network

地震是世界上最主要的自然灾害之一,地震对城市造成的次生灾害损失巨大。通过分析2008年-2023年16个国内外典型地震案例,构建了以地震烈度、应急行动、次生灾害等为节点的贝叶斯网络模型。结果显示,该模型有助于应急管理部门了解突发事件演变路径和主要影响因素,能够迅速指导有效行动,最大限度减少损失,挽救更多生命和财产。

Earthquake is one of the most significant natural disasters in the world,and the secondary disasters caused by earthquakes in urban areas can result in huge losses.By analyzing 16 typical earthquake cases worldwide from 2008 to 2023,a Bayesian network model was constructed in Netica software,with seismic intensity,emergency response,and secondary disasters as key nodes.The results demonstrate that this model assists emergency management departments in understanding the evolution path of sudden events and the primary influencing factors.It can promptly guide effective actions,minimize losses,and save more lives and property.