考虑极端自然灾害影响下的输电线路风险评估方法

Risk assessment method for transmission lines considering the influence of extreme natural disasters

针对我国南部地区雨季雷电活动频繁,输电线路雷害多发的现象,提出一种考虑极端自然灾害影响的输电线路风险评估方法,可为电网安全分析和灾后抢修决策提供参考依据。从雷电灾害发生全过程出发,分析灾害之间的耦合因素,结合雷电灾害下输电线路雷击跳闸概率和雷电伴生综合概率,建立雷电灾害下输电线路失效概率计算模型,利用直流潮流优化模型计算线路故障后的失负荷总量,对雷电灾害后的输电线路风险评估指标进行计算。以IEEE 30节点为例,对所提考虑极端自然灾害输电线路风险评估方法的有效性进行验证。

Aiming at the frequent lightning activities in the rainy season in southern part of China and the frequent occurrence of lightning damage on transmission lines,this paper proposes a risk assessment method for transmission lines considering the impact of extreme natural disasters,which can provide a reference for power grid safety analysis and post-disaster repair decisions.Starting from the whole process of lightning disasters,we analyze the coupling factors between disasters.Combining the lightning trip probability of the transmission line under the lightning disaster and the comprehensive probability of the associated lightning,the calculation model of the failure probability of the transmission line under the lightning disaster is established.The DC power flow optimization model is used to calculate the loss of total load after the line failure,and the risk assessment index of the transmission line after the lightning disaster is calculated.Finally,taking the IEEE 30-node as an example,it verifies the validity of the proposed method for risk assessment of transmission lines considering extreme disasters.