基于隐马尔可夫模型的海上施工通航风险动态评价

Dynamic Evaluation of Navigation Risk of Offshore Construction Based on Hidden Markov Model

针对静态评价方法难以准确描述海上施工通航风险动态演变的问题,利用马尔可夫原理,将海上施工通航风险状态划分为时间序列的状态转移过程,构建了基于马尔可夫过程的风险评价模型,对海上施工通航风险进行动态评价预测。研究结果表明:基于马尔可夫过程的风险评价模型可表征作业水域不同时刻通航风险的时序变化趋势,较好地反映海上施工的通航风险变化情况,提高风险评价的实时性和有效性。

The static evaluation method was difficult to accurately describe the dynamic evolution of offshore construction navigational risk.Based on the Markov principle,the offshore construction navigational risk state was divided into a time series of state transfer process,and a risk evaluation model based on the Markov process was constructed to dynamically evaluate and predict the offshore construction navigational risk.The results show that the risk evaluation model can characterize the time-sequence change trend of the navigation risk at different moments in the operation waters,better reflect the change of the navigation risk of offshore construction,and improve the real-time and effectiveness of risk evaluation.