基于D-S证据理论的危化品水路运输风险模糊综合评价

Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation of Risk of Waterway Transportation of Hazardous Chemicals Based on D-S Evidence Theory

针对危险化学品水路运输风险因素的不确定性和模糊性,提出一种D-S证据理论与模糊综合评价法相结合的危化品水路安全运输风险评价方法。识别分析风险因素,建立危化品水路运输风险因素指标体系;引入距离函数,获取证据可信度后将可信度作为专家权重,结合D-S证据理论,融合专家信息,合理分配指标权重;构建危化品水路运输风险模糊综合评价模型,对危化品水路运输风险等级进行评价。结果表明,该案例的量化风险值为37.389,隶属于较低风险等级,人员、管理、货物因素为关键影响因素,二级指标中教育培训不足、违规操作、安全意识不足、货物敏感条件、通航环境复杂风险值相对较高,需要进行重点防控。

Aiming at the uncertainty and fuzziness of risk factors of dangerous chemicals waterway transportation,it was proposed of a risk assessment method of dangerous chemicals waterway transportation based on D-S evidence theory and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method.The risk factors were identified and analyzed,and a risk factor index system was established for hazardous chemicals waterway transportation;the distance function was introduced to obtain the credibility of the evidence,and the credibility was used as the expert weight.The D-S evidence theory was combined with the expert information to reasonably allocate the index weight.A fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model for the risk of dangerous chemicals waterway transportation was constructed to evaluate the risk level of dangerous chemicals waterway transportation.The results show that the quantitative risk value of the case is 37.389,which belongs to the lower risk level.Personnel,management and cargo factors are the key influencing factors.Among the secondary indicators,it is relatively high for the risk values of insufficient education and training,illegal operation,insufficient safety awareness,sensitive cargo conditions and complex navigation environment are relatively high,which needs to be focused on prevention and control.