基于灰色关联分析的船舶碰撞人为失误影响因素研究

Research on Ship Collision Incidents Human Error Elements Based on Grey Relation Analysis

为避免船舶碰撞事故发生,构建由软件、硬件、环境和人组成的模型(Software Hardware Environment Liveware,SHEL),形成避让操纵流程图,设置调查问卷识别出具体的13项人为失误影响因素。基于灰色关联分析法(Grey Relation Analysis,GRA)对各项人为因素与船舶碰撞事故之间的关联度进行分析。结果显示,各项因素与船舶碰撞事故之间的关联度为0.720~0.976,均为重要因素,其中,未保持正规瞭望与发生碰撞之间的关联程度最高。对人为因素与碰撞事故之间的关联度进行排序,得出各因素与碰撞事故发生之间的紧密程度,从而为船舶避碰操纵提供一定的借鉴和参考。

In order to avoid the occurrence of ship collision incidents,the SHEL model was constructed,the flow chart of avoidance operation was formed,and the questionnaire was set up to determine the particular 13 elements affecting human error.The correlation degree between each mistake component and the collision accident was determined using the Grey Relation Analysis(GRA).The results show that each element has a significant connection degree,ranging from 0.720 to 0.976.The strongest link is found between the inability to maintain a normal lookout and the likelihood of a collision.It is sorted for the degree of correlation between human factors and collision accidents,and it is obtained for the degree of closeness between each factor and collision accidents,so as to provide some reference for ship collision avoidance maneuvering.