超越总统:菲律宾对华政策的变与不变及原因探析

Beyond the President:An Analysis of the Changes and Continuities in the Philippines’China Policy and Their Causes

已有研究多将菲律宾对华政策的摇摆归因于该国总统的更迭。不同于已有的“总统中心论”,本文提出了圈层式的理论框架。在这一框架下,总统、外交部、国防部及其代表的军方共同构成了菲律宾外交政策的决策圈。本文认为,菲律宾对华政策在制衡与对冲之间的有限调整,反映了决策圈各行为体利益的聚拢与离散,是这些行为体博弈的结果,而非总统的战略规划。在决策圈之外,菲律宾的立法与司法机构、行业集团和公民社会,共同构成了外交政策的利益攸关方。决策圈行为体通过对利益攸关方的动员,扩大自身的支持基础及对外交政策的影响力。大国战略资源的投入与撤出也经过国内政治的传导,影响了决策者的相对地位及博弈结果。本文通过四个案例,即阿基诺三世时期、杜特尔特执政前期、杜特尔特执政后期,以及小马科斯时期菲律宾的对华政策,对这一分析框架进行论证。

Existing research often attributes the oscillation in the Philippines’China policy to the changes in presidential leadership.Departing from the existing presidency-centered theory,this paper proposes a concentric framework.Within this framework,the president,the Department of Foreign Affairs,the Depart-ment of National Defense and the military it represents together constitute the decision-making circle of the Philippines’foreign policy.This paper argues that the shifts in the Philippines’China policy between bal-ancing and hedging reflect the convergence and divergence of interests among the actors within the decision-making circle.These shifts are the result of internal bargaining rather than the president’s strategic plan-ning.Beyond this decision-making circle,the legislative and judicial institutions of the Philippines,along with industry groups and civil society,collectively form the stakeholders of foreign policy.Actors within the decision-making circle mobilize these stakeholders to expand their support and influence over policy deci-sions.The input and withdrawal of strategic resources from major powers are also mediated through domestic politics,affecting the relative position of decision-makers and shaping the outcomes of their bargaining.This paper applies this analytical framework through four case studies namely the Philippines’China policy dur-ing the Aquino III administration,the early and later periods of Duterte’s administration,and the Marcos Jr.administration.