中国人口变化趋势及经济潜在增长率——兼论延迟退休的影响

The Population Trend and Potential Economic Growth Rate in China:A Concurrent Discussion of the Impact of Delayed Retirement

基于生产函数法的估测结果显示,2035年之前中国潜在经济增长率将处于下行趋势,2021—2025年平均为5.2%左右,2026—2030年平均为5.1%左右,2031—2035年平均为4.7%左右。潜在经济增长率下降的主要因素是,未来人口抚养比上升,导致固定资本形成率下降,进而固定资本存量增速放缓。未来就业人口数量减少,对潜在经济增长率有不利影响,但人力资本积累能在一定程度上弥补。情形分析结果显示,2035年之前人口出生率水平与经济潜在增长率呈相反关系,主要原因是,新出生人口在2035年前尚无法进入劳动力市场,反而会通过影响固定资本增速拖累经济潜在增长率。延迟退休对2025—2035年的经济增长有积极影响,以2024年9月13日公布的方案测算,年均提高潜在增长率约0.03个百分点。

Based on the production function,it is predicted that China’s potential economic growth rate will be on a downward trend before 2035.Average potential economic growth rate is about 5.2%in 2021-2025,5.1%in 2026-2030,and 4.7%in 2031-2035.The main reason for the decline in the potential economic growth is the decline in the contribution of capital growth,which is related to the decline in the rate of capital formation caused by the increase in the population dependency ratio.The decrease in the future population employed will have a negative impact on the potential economic growth rate,but the accumulation of human capital can make up for it to a certain extent.The results of the situation analysis reveal a negative correlation between the birth rate and the potential economic growth rate before 2035.The main reason is that the newly-born population will not have been able to enter the labor market by 2035 the newly-born population will not enter the labor market until 2035,and will drag down potential economic growth rates by affecting fixed capital growth.Delayed retirement will have a positive impact on economic growth from 2025 to 2035.According to the plan to raise retirement age gradually,which“will be implemented in 2025”,by around 2055 the retirement age will be 65 for both men and women.The potential economy growth rate will increase by approximately 0.02-0.07 percentage points per year.