农村土地制度改革对县级政府财政压力的影响研究——基于“三块地”改革试点的准自然实验

The Impact of Rural Land System Reform on Fiscal Pressure in County Governments:A Quasi-natural Experiment Based on the“Three Land Plots”Reform Pilot

在深化农村土地制度改革、推进乡村全面振兴的进程中,理清农村、土地与财政的内在关系尤为重要。本文利用中国2010—2020年县级面板数据,运用双重差分模型分析“三块地”改革试点对县级政府财政压力的影响。研究结果表明,“三块地”改革试点显著缓解县级政府财政压力,尤其是在农业县和山地丘陵县的财政效应更为明显。因此,本文建议农村土地制度改革应全面推进、因地施策并强化保障。

In the process of deepening rural land system reform and advancing comprehensive rural revitalization,it is crucial to clarify the relationship among rural areas,land and finance.This paper used county-level panel data from China for 2010−2020 and employed a difference-in-differences model to analyze the impact of the“Three Land Plots”reform pilot on county governments fiscal pressure.The results showed that,the reform significantly reduced fiscal pressure for county governments,especially in agricultural and mountainous counties.Therefore,this study recommended that,rural land system reform should be advanced in a coordinated manner,tailored to local conditions,and supported by strong safeguards.