基于“2-4模型”的燃气爆炸事故致因研究

Study on the Causes of Gas Explosion Accidents Based on the 2-4 Model

为研究燃气爆炸事故原因,运用“2-4模型”对2004~2023年期间全国范围内发生的30起燃气爆炸事故的直接原因、间接原因、根本原因和根源原因进行分析。建立燃气爆炸事故致因指标评价体系,运用变异系数法确定各类致因权重。研究发现,在燃气爆炸事故致因中,直接原因(一次性行为)和间接原因(习惯性行为)是最需要关注的,根本原因次之,根源原因亦不可忽视。为减少燃气爆炸事故,基于研究结果提出针对性的建议,进而推动安全生产和社会健康发展。

In order to study the causes of gas explosion accidents,the“2-4 model”was used to analyse the direct,indirect,root and underlying causes of 30 gas explosion accidents nationwide during the period from 2004 to 2023.The evaluation system of gas explosion accident causation indicators was established,and the weight of each type of causation was determined by using the coefficient of variation method.The study found that,in the cause of gas explosion accidents,direct causes(onetime behaviour)and indirect causes(habitual behaviour)are the most important concern,followed by the root cause,the root cause can not be ignored.In order to reduce the number of gas explosion accidents,based on the results of the study,targeted recommendations are provided to promote safety and healthy development of society.