“一带一路”倡议下中国与东盟机械及运输设备产品的贸易互补性影响因素实证分析

Empirical Analysis of Factors Influencing Trade Complementarity in Machinery and Transportation Equipment Between China and ASEAN Under the“Belt and Road”Initiative

以中国与东盟机械及运输设备贸易数据为基础,实证双方贸易的影响因素。结果表明:中国与东盟的经济开放度提升、“一带一路”倡议推进和产业经济溢出效应都会增加贸易互补性,而现有的东盟对华直接投资效应、科研基础投入效应和东盟各国的人均GDP现有的增长速度会减少贸易互补性。据此,从科研投入方向、投资环境建设和规模经济效应三个方面提出建议。

Based on the trade data of machinery and transportation equipment between China and ASEAN,this study empirically examines factors influencing bilateral trade.The results show that the improvement of economic openness between China and ASEAN,the promotion of the“Belt and Road”Initiative,and the spillover effects of industrial economics all contribute to enhancing trade complementarity.Conversely,the existing impact of ASEAN’s direct investment in China,the effects of investments in scientific research infrastructure,and the current growth rates of per capita GDP in ASEAN countries tend to diminish trade complementarity.Accordingly,suggestions are proposed from three aspects:direction of scientific research investment,construction of the investment environment,and economies of scale effects.