基于灾害动态演化过程的管道滑坡灾害多因素耦合预警模型

A multifactor coupled rarly-warning model for pipeline landslide hazards based on the dynamic evolutionary process of disaster

长输油气管道不可避免地要穿越地质环境条件复杂的山区,遭受各类地质灾害威胁。滑坡灾害是最为严重的地质灾害之一。为了实现管道滑坡灾害的提前预判,通常设定多项监测预警指标进行监测,但是,由于忽略了各指标之间的关联性,导致大量的错报与误报。本文通过对管道滑坡灾害动态演化过程分析,提出了管道滑坡灾害动态演化的4个阶段:①滑坡区降雨,地表入渗;②地下水位上升,坡体自重增加,岩土力学参数降低;③坡体产生局部变形;④滑坡整体失稳下滑作用于管道。提取了灾害变形、外界诱发因素、管道应力应变3种类型监测关键指标,构建了管道滑坡灾害监测指标体系,在此基础之上,提出基于灾害动态演化过程的管道滑坡灾害多因素耦合预警模型。该模型通过综合考虑灾害变形指标、外界诱发指标、管道力学指标之间的耦合关系,构建出了多维度预警等级判据。模型在贵州某天然气管道滑坡开展示范应用,先后成功发布蓝色、黄色、红色预警信息,为滑坡的应急处置与抢险提供了充足的响应时间,保障了管道的运营安全。该模型避免了因降雨过多即发出高预警等级的问题,进一步提高了预警准确度,使得预警结果更符合实际,可以为管道滑坡灾害的监测预警工作提供一定的参考与借鉴。

Long oil and gas pipelines inevitably cross mountainous regions with complex geological environment and are threatened by various geological disasters,the most severe of which is landslides.To achieve early-warning of pipeline landslide hazards,multiple monitoring and early-warning indicators are typically established.However,the failure to account for the correlation between various indicators has led to a high frequency of false alarms.Based on the analysis of the dynamic evolutionary process of pipeline landslide hazards,this study proposes four stages of pipeline landslide hazards:(1)rainfall on the landslide leads to surface infiltration;(2)the groundwater level rises increasing the slope self-weight increases and reducing the geotechnical parameter;(3)the slope has undergone local deformation;(4)the landslide slides entirely and threatens pipeline safety.Three key monitoring indicators of landslide hazard deformations,external induced indicators,and pipeline stress-strain were extracted to construct a monitoring index system for pipeline landslide hazards.On this basis,a multifactor coupled early-warning model for pipeline landslide hazards is proposed.This model integrates the relationships between landslide deformation indicators,external triggers,and pipeline mechanical responses,creating a multidimensional early-warning criterion.This early-warning model was applied in a natural gas pipeline landslide in Guizhou Province,and successfully issued blue,yellow,and red early-warning information,providing sufficient time for emergency response and rescue of the landslide,ensuring the safe operation of the pipeline.This model can avoid the problem of high early-warning levels due to excessive rainfall,further improving the accuracy of pipeline landslide hazards early-warning and making the early-warning results more realistic.This study can provide a valuable reference for the monitoring and early-warning work on pipeline landslide hazards.