辽宁省山洪灾害时空格局和影响因子分析

Spatial and Temporal Pattern and Influencing Factors of Flash Flood Disasters in Liaoning Province

通过地理探测器和空间分析方法,对辽宁省1956—2020年历史山洪灾害数据进行系统分析,并以10 a为研究期,探究了2001—2010年和2011—2020年两个时段的驱动因子变化格局。结果表明:1956—2020年间,辽宁省山洪灾害主要集中在中部,且随时间推移逐渐向南北方向聚集;平均过程降雨量与山洪灾害数量存在正相关关系,呈现出一定的空间聚集性;降雨是历史山洪灾害的主要驱动因子,其中最大6 h暴雨均值具有最高的解释能力,此外,高程、坡度、地貌类型和土地利用也对山洪灾害具有较高的解释力;最大6 h暴雨均值与其他驱动因子的交互作用能显著提高解释力,尤其是与年降雨量的交互作用最强;随时间推移,降雨和土地利用因子的解释力增强,而自然地理因子的解释力相对稳定。

This paper systematically analyzes the historical flash flood disaster data of Liaoning Province from 1956-2020 by geographic detector and spatial analysis method,and explores the driving factor change patterns in two recent periods of 2001-2010 and 2011-2020 with a ten-year research period.The results show that during 1956-2020,flash floods in Liaoning Province were mainly concentrated in the central part of Liaoning Province,and gradually gathered in the north-south direction with the passage of time.There is a positive correlation between the average process rainfall and the number of flash flood disasters,showing a certain spatial aggregation.Rainfall is the main driving factor of historical flash flood disasters,and the mean value of maximum 6-hour rainstorm has the highest explanatory power,and elevation,slope,landform type and land use also have high explanatory power for flash flood disasters.The interaction between the mean of maximum 6-hour rainfall and other driving factors can significantly improve the explanatory power,especially the interaction with annual rainfall.With the passage of time,the explanatory power of rainfall and land use factors increased,while the explanatory power of physical geographic factors was relatively stable.