基于MIKE11的鉴江干流堤防防洪能力分析

Analysis of Flood Control Capacity for River Levees of Jianjiang River Mainstream Using MIKE11 Model

鉴江干流堤防防洪能力分析对鉴江流域的防洪减灾具有重大意义,而设计水面线成果是分析堤防防洪能力的重要依据。基于MIKE11模型,通过率定验证,构建鉴江干流一维水动力学模型,计算了P=1%、2%、3.33%、5%、10%工况下的水面线,结果表明,设计水面线成果合理,能较好地反映近年人类活动和上游来水来沙条件改变对鉴江干流水位的影响。经分析,鉴江干流未达标需治理堤防总长69.76 km,表明沿岸防洪形势依然严峻,系统达标治理必要且迫切。

The analysis of the flood control capacity for river levees of Jianjiang River mainstream is of great significance to the Jianjiang River flood control and disaster mitigation,and the design flood levels are an important basis for analyzing the flood control capacity of the levees.This paper constructed a one-dimensional hydrodynamic model of Jianjiang River mainstream using MIKE11 model with calibration and verification,and simulated water surface profile with P=1%,2%,3.33%,5%,and 10%.The results of the simulated design flood levels indicated the impact of human activities and changes in upstream water and sediment conditions on the water level of Jianjiang River mainstream in recent years.We found the flood control capacity for river levees of Jianjiang River mainstream has not satisfied the needs of flood risk management and a total length of 69.76km of levees needs to be reinforced.Therefore,the flood control situation along the Jianjiang River is still severe,and it is necessary and urgent to manage the flood control system to meet standards.