省域科普能力测度、区域差异分解与动态演进

Measurement,Regional Difference Decomposition and Dynamic Evolution of Provincial Science Popularization Capacity

基于科普能力内涵,从科普人员、科普场地、科普经费、科普传媒和科普活动五个方面构建指标体系,运用熵值法测算2010—2021年全国31个省区市科普能力水平,借助Dagum基尼系数和Kernel密度估计法揭示了科普能力水平的区域差异及演进趋势。研究发现,全国31个省区市科普能力水平总体呈稳步上升趋势。科普能力水平存在明显的区域差异,主要来源于区域间差异,其中东部地区内部差异最大,东部—中部的区域间差异最大,全国、东、中、西部地区科普能力水平的绝对差异呈稳步下降趋势。在力求科学全面地测度省域科普能力水平的基础上,进一步揭示了区域差异及其来源,并分析动态演进特征,为构建新时代科普工作新格局提供借鉴价值。

Based on the connotation of science popularization capacity,this paper constructs an index system from five dimensions:science popularization personnel,venues,funds,media,and activities.Using the entropy method,we measure the science popularization capacity of 31 provinces in China from 2010 to 2021.The regional differences and evolution trends of science popularization capacity levels are revealed through the Dagum Gini coefficient and Kernel density estimation method.The study finds that the overall level of science popularization capacity in the 31 provinces shows a steady upward trend.Significant regional differences exist,primarily stemming from interregional disparities.The internal differences within the eastern region are the largest,and the interregional differences between the eastern and central regions are the most pronounced.The absolute differences in science popularization capacity levels among the entire country,as well as within the eastern,central,and western regions,exhibit a steady decline.By striving to scientifically and comprehensively measure the provincial science popularization capacity,this paper further reveals the sources of regional differences and analyzes the characteristics of dynamic evolution,providing valuable insights for constructing a new pattern of science popularization work in the new era.