2011—2022年广东省新兴县肺结核流行病学特征及趋势预测分析

Epidemiological characteristics and trend prediction of tuberculosis in Xinxing county of Guangdong province from 2011 to 2022

目的了解2011—2022年广东省新兴县肺结核流行病学特征,并进行趋势预测分析,为制定防治策略提供理论依据。方法将来源于传染病报告信息管理系统中2011—2022年广东省新兴县肺结核患者确诊报告数及统计局统计年鉴的数据导入EXCEL中汇总并整理,分析2011—2022年广东省新兴县肺结核患者流行病学特征,并利用灰色GM(1,1)模型预测未来3年广东省新兴县肺结核流行趋势。结果2011—2022年广东省新兴县累计报告肺结核3976例,年均发病率72.63/10万,整体呈下降趋势(趋势χ^(2)=761.960,P<0.001);每个季节均有发病,3—5月发病最多1113例、占27.99%,12月至次年2月最低862例、占21.68%;新城镇发病最多1364例、占34.41%,大江镇最低44例、占1.11%。男性患者2970例、占74.70%,女性患者1006例、占25.30%,男女发病性别比为2.95∶1;发病人数随年龄增长而上升(趋势χ^(2)=1432.021,P<0.001),其中55岁及以上居多;农民发病最多2787例、占70.10%。灰色GM(1,1)模型预测方程为x(k+1)=-5811.32e-0.307k+5913.46,预测结果与实际结果基本吻合,预测2023—2025年肺结核发病率分别为35.56/10万、30.56/10万、25.75/10万。结论2011—2022年广东省新兴县肺结核发病率总体呈下降趋势,未来3年肺结核发病率可能呈下降趋势;但应在3—5月对新城镇男性老年人及农民群体加强肺结核防治科普宣传、强化区域监控、接种卡介苗以及完善结核患者的医疗保障体系等防控策略,以遏制本地区肺结核病的发生与发展。

Objective To understand the epidemiological characteristics and the epidemic trend of pulmonary tuberculosis in Xinxing county,Guangdong province from 2011 to 2022,so as to provide theoretical basis for formulating prevention and control strategies.Methods The reported number of the confirmed pulmonary tuberculosis patients in Xinxing county of Guangdong province from 2011 to 2022 were collected from the Infectious Disease Reporting Information Management System,and the data from the statistical yearbook published by the bureau of statistics of Xinxing county were imported into EXCEL for summarizing and arranging.The epidemiological characteristics of pulmonary tuberculosis cases in Xinxing county of Guangdong province from 2011 to 2022 were analyzed,and the epidemic trend of pulmonary tuberculosis in Xinxing county was predicted with grey GM(1,1)model in the next three years.Results From 2011 to 2022,a total of 3976 cases with pulmonary tuberculosis were cumulatively reported in Xinxing county,with an average annual incidence rate of 72.63/100000,and decreasing trend(trendχ^(2)=761.960,P<0.001).There were cases in each season and the maximum number of cases was 1113 from March to May,accounting for 27.99%,and the minimum was 862 cases in winter from December to February,accounting for 21.68%.The maximum number of the cases was 1364 in Xincheng town,accounting for 34.41%,and the minimum number of the cases was 44 in Dajiang town,accounting for 1.11%.There were 2970 male cases,accounting for 74.70%,and 1006 female cases,accounting for 25.30%,and the ratio of the male to the female was 2.95∶1.The number of cases increased with ages(trendχ^(2)=1432.021,P<0.001).The cases aged 55 years and elderly were majority.Farmer cases were the most with 2787,and accounted for 70.10%.The prediction equation of the grey GM(1,1)model was x(k+1)=-5811.32e-0.307k+5913.46.The predicting results were basically coincidence with the actual results.The predicting incidence rate of pulmonary tuberculosis from 2023 to 2025 was 35.56/100000,30.56/100000 and 25.75/100000,respectively.Conclusions The overall incidence rate of tuberculosis in shows decreasing trend in Xinxing county of Guangdong province from 2011 to 2022,and it may shows decreasing trend in the next three years.From March to May,for Xincheng town,the male,old people and farmers,the prevention and control strategies of the strengthening of popular science propaganda on tuberculosis prevention and control and regional surveillance,BCG vaccination,improvement of the medical security system for tuberculosis cases could be implemented for curbing the occurrence and spread of pulmonary tuberculosis in the local area.