重特大生产安全事故致因间作用关系统计分析

Statistical analysis of the relationships among major causes of workplace safety accidents

为有效防范遏制重特大生产安全事故发生,基于设计的“452”逻辑架构,构建了事故致因数据库,定量解析致因及作用关系权重,并通过优化系统理论事故建模与过程(Systems-Theory Accident Modeling and Process,STAMP)模型及决策与实验室(Decision Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory,DEMATEL)分析法的叠加模型(STAMP-DEMATEL),推演关键致因及其作用关系,搭建致因分层控制结构,系统分析安全约束管控策略。研究揭示了监督检查计划落实、作业行为管理、关键技术水平等6个关键致因及监督检查计划落实-关键技术水平、作业行为管理-安全操作规程执行等5对关键作用关系,涉及政府与企业、企业内部两类主体关系范畴,管-人、管-物两类要素关系。对关键作用关系进行致因、要素、主体层面安全约束的系统分析,可为整个安全生产系统平衡运行提供决策支持,在支持系统风险管理、监管资源分配、风险预警等方面发挥重要作用。

To effectively prevent and mitigate the occurrence of major accidents,this research utilized the‘452’logical structure as its top-level design and analyzed two primary lines of accident cause-and-effect relationships.First,it identified the causes of major workplace safety accidents in recent years,establishing the logical connections between these causes and their specific categories.The study also examined potential relationship categories and constructed a structural database detailing the causes of workplace safety accidents.Secondly,the frequency of specific accident causes was used to determine the weight of each cause,while the frequency of causal relationships was employed to assess the weight of those relationships.The Systems-Theory Accident Modeling and Process-Decision Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory(STAMP-DEMATEL)model was optimized using objective weights,allowing for the quantitative deduction of key causes and relationships while accounting for both direct and indirect causal effects.Additionally,a hierarchical control structure for these causes was established.Finally,the significant relationship categories within the system were identified.Building on the hierarchical control structure of accident causes and their relationships,a systematic and targeted safety constraint control strategy was proposed for addressing the key causes and relationships identified.The research identifies six key causes:technical proficiency,adherence to safety operation procedures,operational status of equipment and facilities,material characteristics,implementation of supervision and inspection plans,and management of operational behavior.Five key relationships were also identified and analyzed:Implementation of supervision and inspection plans and technical proficiency;Implementation of supervision and inspection plans and adherence to safety operation procedures;Management of operational behavior and adherence to safety operation procedures;Implementation of education and training and adherence to safety operation procedures;Implementation of supervision and inspection plans and material characteristics.The study encompasses two types of relationships:those between government and enterprises,as well as those among internal enterprise stakeholders.It also examines two types of relationships concerning elements:management and personnel,and management and materials.Analyzing safety constraints at the levels of cause,elements,and subjects can provide valuable decision support for the balanced operation of the entire workplace safety system.