淮河流域水资源-经济-社会环境耦合协调研究

Coupled coordination of water resources utilization,economy,society,and environment in the Huaihe River Basin

测算淮河流域水资源、经济、社会和环境各系统发展水平及系统耦合协调情况,探究其耦合协调度时空分异特征,可为流域高质量发展提供决策参考。基于2011—2022年淮河流域30个市的面板数据,构建水资源-经济-社会-环境指标体系,采用熵权法计算各系统得分、耦合协调度模型计算耦合协调度,并利用标准差椭圆与Dagum基尼系数分析各系统耦合协调度空间分异情况及其差异来源。在2011—2022年,淮河流域水资源、经济、社会、环境各系统综合值逐年上升,系统间耦合协调度由2011年的0.166上升至2022年的0.36,从严重失调状态转变为中度失调状态。淮河流域江苏段各系统耦合协调度最大,安徽段最小,且中部地区耦合协调逐渐变弱。淮河流域东南和西北地区的水资源-经济-社会-环境耦合协调度增长较快,且呈现强弱交替发展。地区间差异是空间差异的主要来源。总之,淮河流域水资源-经济-社会-环境耦合协调水平较低,主要影响因素是地区间发展不协调,应考虑地区特点制定地方化的水资源政策,并加强地区间交流合作。

The purpose of this paper is to assess the development levels of water resources,economy,society,and environmental systems,as well as the coupling and coordination among these systems in the Huaihe River Basin.Additionally,it aims to explore the spatial and temporal characteristics of the degree of coupling and coordination,providing valuable insights for informed decision-making to promote high-quality development in the basin.Based on panel data from 30 cities in the Huaihe River Basin spanning 2011 to 2022,we developed an indicator system encompassing water resources,economy,society,and environment.We applied the entropy weight method to calculate the scores for each system and utilized the coupling coordination degree model to assess the degree of coupling and coordination.Additionally,we analyzed the spatial differentiation of the coupling coordination degree across systems and identified sources of variation using standard deviation ellipses and the Dagum Gini coefficient.From 2011 to 2022,the water resources,economic,social,and environmental systems in the Huaihe River Basin have shown a consistent annual increase.The degree of coupling and coordination among these systems rose from 0.166 in 2011 to 0.36 in 2022,reflecting a transition from severe disorder to moderate disorder.Notably,the coupling coordination degree is highest in the Jiangsu section of the Huaihe River Basin,while it is lowest in the Anhui section,with a gradual weakening of coupling coordination observed in the central region.The coupled coordination of water resources,economy,society,and environment in the southeast and northwest regions of the Huaihe River Basin is progressing at a faster pace,exhibiting alternating phases of strength and weakness.Inter-regional disparities are the primary source of spatial differences.In conclusion,the coupling and coordination level of water resources,economy,society,and environment in the Huaihe River Basin is low.The primary influencing factor is the lack of coordinated development across regions.It is essential to consider the regional characteristics when formulating localized water resource policies,and there is an urgent need to strengthen inter-regional exchanges and cooperation.