淮河生态经济带产业生态化发展模式的仿真研究

Simulation Study on the Industrial Ecological Development Model of Huaihe Ecological Economic Belt

基于生态经济学理论,构建包括资源模块、环境模块、环保投资模块、产业生态化模块和经济模块五部分的系统动力学模型,并利用该模型对淮河生态经济带产业生态化的适宜发展模式与合理速度进行仿真分析。结果表明:为获得理想的产业生态化发展成果,具有第一产业和第二产业优势的城市适合选择产业纵向深化的生态化发展模式,其中,具有第一产业优势的城市发展速度应控制在1.80%-3.46%,具有第二产业优势的城市发展速度应控制在5.52%-8.72%;具有第三产业优势的城市适合选择横向产业结构优化的发展模式并将发展速度控制在11.08%-12.00%。研究结果可为淮河生态经济带的产业生态化建设提供新的思路,同时可为实现区域经济与生态的可持续发展提供决策支持。

Based on the theory of ecological economics,this study constructs a system dynamics model consisting of five parts:resource module,environment module,environmental protection investment module,industrial ecology module and economic module.The model is used to simulate the development mode and speed of Huaihe Ecological Economic Belt.The results showed that the first and second dominant industrial cities are suitable for choosing the industrial ecological development model with vertical deepening of the industry,and the development speed of the dominant cities in the primary industry can be chosen in the range of 1.80-3.46%,and the development speed of the superior cities in the secondary industry is in the range of 5.52-8.72%,so that the ideal industrial ecological development results can be obtained.The advantage city of tertiary industry is more suitable for the development mode of horizontal industrial structure optimization in the range of 11.08%-12.00%.This study can provide new ideas and methods for the industrial ecological construction of Huaihe Ecological Economic Belt and provide decision support for the sustainable development of regional economy and ecology.