粮食产业高质量发展的时空差异与障碍因素研究——来自广东省的实证分析

Study on Spatiotemporal Differences and Obstacle Factors of High-quality Development of Grain Industry:An Empirical Analysis from Guangdong Province

测度广东省粮食产业高质量发展水平并解析其时空分异与障碍因素,对于贯彻“建立广东省粮食生产功能区和重要农产品生产保护区实施方案”具有重要现实意义。以广东省20个地级市(除深圳)为研究靶区,首先通过熵值法测度粮食产业高质量发展水平,再通过核密度估计、空间自相关以及Dagum基尼系数法分析粮食产业高质量发展水平的时空差异,最后通过障碍度模型识别粮食产业高质量发展的障碍因子。研究结果表明:1.广东省粮食产业高质量发展水平演化趋势平稳,地区间存在明显差距。2.粮食产业高质量发展水平收敛程度先增加后下降,各区域发展水平存在正的空间自相关,区域差异呈现扩大趋势,区域间差异是整体差异的主要来源。3.粮食安全子系统对粮食产业高质量发展水平的障碍逐渐下降,而生产效率子系统的影响逐年提高。研究结果有助于优化广东省的农业资源配置,推动粮食产业转型升级,并可为其他地区的粮食产业高质量发展提供可借鉴的经验与模式。

Measuring the high-quality development level of grain industry in Guangdong Province and analyzing its spatio-temporal differentiation and obstacle factors are of great practical significance for implementing the"Plan for establishing functional grain production areas and important agricultural production protection areas in Guangdong Province":Taking 20 prefecture-level cities in Guangdong Province(except Shenzhen)as the research target area,this paper firstly measured the high-quality development level of grain industry by entropy method,then analyzed the spatio-temporal difference of high-quality development level of grain industry by kernel density estimation,spatial autocorrelation and Dagum Gini coefficient method,and finally identified the obstacle factors of high-quality development of grain industry by obstacle degree model.The results show that:1.The evolution trend of high-quality development level of grain industry in Guangdong Province is stable,and there is an obvious gap between regions.2.The convergence degree of high-quality development level of grain industry first increased and then decreased,and the development level of each region showed a positive spatial autocorrelation,and regional differences showed an expanding trend,and inter-regional differences were the main source of the overall diferences.3.The obstacles of the food security subsystem to the high-quality development level of the food industry are gradually decreasing,while the impact of the production efficiency subsystem is increasing year by year.The results are helpful to optimize the allocation of agricultural resources in Guangdong Province,promote the transformation and upgrading of grain industry,and provide experience and model for the high-quality development of grain industry in other regions.