基于IPAT方程的地膜投入与粮食产量的脱钩分析

A Decoupling Analysis of Mulch Film Input and Grain Yield Based on IPAT Equation

基于脱钩理论,运用IPAT方程对甘肃省2003-2022年的地膜投入与粮食产量的脱钩程度进行分析,并预测其后十年的地膜投入量和粮食产量的脱钩状态。结果显示:2003年以后甘肃省的地膜投入量与粮食产量呈现出由衰退性脱钩向复钩的转变,并在2008年之后一直处于扩张性复钩状态;地膜投入对粮食作物的增产效应尚未达到上限,未来地膜使用仍可发挥重要作用;脱钩的主要影响因素为政府利农政策和地膜使用效率。建议普及农机配套设施并完善地膜回收政策,与此同时,发展秸秆覆盖等新农业技术。

Based on the decoupling theory,IPAT equation was applied to analyze the decoupling degree between its plastic mulch inputs and grain production in Gansu province from 2003 to 2022.The decoupling relationship of plastic film inputs and grain production was predicted for the next decade.The results showed that the decoupling relationship between plastic flm inputs and grain production had changed from recessionary decoupling to coupling after 2003,and had been in spreading coupling after 2008.The yield-enhancing effect of plastic film on grain crops has not yet been capped,and plastic film will continue to play a significant role in the future.The main factors affecting the decoupling are government's agricultural policies and the efficiency of flm usage.It thus suggests popularizing the supporting facilities of agricultural machinery and improving film recycling policies,as well as developing new agricultural technologies such as straw mulching.