考虑新能源发电出力特征的电煤储备决策模型

Decision Model for Thermal Coal Stockpile Reserves Considering the Output Features of Renewable Energy Power Generation

随着新能源占比不断升高,电力保供安全受到新能源发电出力不确定性的影响,强化电煤储备能力成为确保新型电力系统安全稳定运行的关键任务。基于k-均值聚类原理对多时间尺度的新能源发电出力数据进行特征提取,以解决新能源发电出力的计量与电煤储备决策时间尺度不匹配的难题。在此基础上,兼顾经济性和安全性要求,设计综合响应日常电力生产需求和应对极端天气影响的电煤二元储备结构,将所提取的新能源发电出力特征纳入考虑,构建电煤储备动态规划模型并给出相应的求解思路。最后,以我国N省实际数据为例开展算例分析,结果显示电煤储备中心这种二元储备结构能够以较低的代价实现大多数应急情景下的供电安全,为应对极端天气等异常事件所额外支付的储备成本仅占未发生中断的总成本的3%。研究结果能够为煤炭储备中心的运营提供管理启示与决策参考。

The increasing proportion of renewable energy sources introduces uncertainties in the security of power supply.Enhancing the management of thermal coal stockpile reserves has become crucial to ensure the reliability and stability of the emerging new electric power system.To resolve temporal scale mismatches between renewable energy power generation data measurements and thermal coal reserve decisions,this paper extracts new energy power generation output data features with multiple time scales based on k-means clustering method.Considering economic and safety requirements,a dual reserve structure for the thermal coal stockpile is established to comprehensively address regular thermal power production demands and contingencies resulting from unforeseen events.The extracted output features of renewable energy power are factored into a dynamic programming model with proposed solutions.Finally,taking the actual data of N Province in China as an example,the results show that the dual reserve structure for thermal coal stockpile can achieve power supply security in most emergency scenarios at a lower cost,and the additional reserve cost paid in response to extreme weather only accounts for three percent of the total cost without interruption.These results offer valuable insights and guidance for decision-making in thermal coal stockpile reserve management practices.