国家级城市群建设是否促进了区域经济发展——基于双重差分方法的验证

Does the Construction of National Urban Agglomerations Promote Regional Economic Development?A Validation Based on the Difference-in-Difference Method

城市群是区域经济发展规划中的重要空间载体,国家级城市群建设对于推动区域经济发展至关重要,它直接关系到在新发展格局下空间经济布局的合理性。文章采用2004-2019年中国283个地级及以上城市面板数据,基于双重差分方法研究国家级城市群对区域经济发展的影响。结果表明:1)国家级城市群建设对区域经济发展具有显著促进作用,并且能够持续影响经济发展进程。2)国家级城市群中的中心城市对区域经济发展具有显著促进作用。3)国家级城市群规模差异影响区域经济发展质量,城市群规模太小和太大都会弱化对区域经济发展的促进作用。从当前国家级城市群规划范围来看,10-20个城市的国家级城市群对区域经济发展的带动效果更为显著。我国需要科学控制国家级城市群的数量及规模,以期获得最佳的区域发展结果。

In the field of regional economics,the establishment of national urban agglomerations plays a vital role in regional planning.This study,based on data from 2004 to 2019 in 283 Chinese cities,examines the impact of national urban agglomerations on regional economic development with difference-in-difference model.The key findings are:1)National urban agglomerations construction significantly boosts regional economic growth consistently over time and will have a far-reaching significant impact on the economic development.2)Central cities within these agglomerations have a notable positive impact on regional economic development.3)The size of national urban agglomerations affects the quality of regional economic growth,with those too small or too large having a weak impact.Agglomerations with 1020 cities appear the most effective.These results highlight the need for China to carefully control the number and scale of national urban agglomerations for optimal regional development.The study provides crucial policy insights for China's urbanization and regional economic coordination.