建筑业碳配额分配机制优化研究

Optimization of Carbon Allowance AllocationMechanism for Construction Industry

在碳交易机制背景下,通过对2019—2021年建筑业碳排放情况进行分析,发现现有建筑业碳配额分配制度缺乏公平性。因此,建立了基于灰色预测模型(Gray Forecasting Model,GM(1,1))和熵值-变异系数法的碳配额分配模型,最终得出了2030年建筑业生命周期评价(Life Cycle Assessment,LCA)的碳配额分配结果。结果表明:以2030年为基准年,建材生产阶段的碳配额总量将达到381772.82万t,建筑施工阶段将达到72290.66万t,建筑运行阶段将达到244807.03万t。在分配总量控制不变的前提下,各阶段碳排放源中,水泥生产、电力消耗、城镇居住建筑及公共建筑运行需要大幅度降低碳排放量才有可能达到目标。建筑行业可参考此碳配额分配标准控制各阶段的碳排放量,以达到行业减排标准。

In the context of carbon trading mechanism,through analysis of the carbon emission status of the construction industry from 2019 to 2021,it is found that the current carbon quota allocation system of the construction industry lacks fairness.Therefore,a carbon quota allocation model based on grey forecasting model(GM(1,1))and entropy value-coefficient of variation is established,and the carbon quota allocation results of life cycle assessment(LCA)of the construction industry in 2030 are finally derived.The results show that with 2030 as the base year,the total carbon quota in the production phase of building materials will reach 3817728200 tons,the construction phase will reach 7229066000 tons,and the operation phase of building will reach 2448070300 tons.Under the premise of unchanged control of the total amount of allocation,among the carbon emission sources in each stage,cement,electricity,urban residential buildings and public buildings areneeded to significantly reduce carbon emissions in order to meet the target.The construction industry can refer to this quota allocation standard to control carbon emissions at each stage in order to meet emission reduction standard in this industry.