世界生姜贸易网络动态演变及驱动机制

The Dynamic Change of Global Ginger Trade Network and Its Driving Mechanism

中国是最大的生姜出口国,出口增长主要依靠于市场规模效应,研究世界生姜贸易格局及内在机制能更好地理解中国生姜贸易,本文基于2000—2021年联合国粮食及农业组织统计的世界190个国家生姜贸易数据,利用社会网络分析法,构建了全球生姜贸易网络,从网络结构、节点特性、网络效率以及贸易社团4个方面对生姜贸易网络进行分析。研究发现:第一,网络连通性较强,聚集系数较高,但平均路径短,存在“小世界”现象;第二,中国出度和加权出度较高,中介中心性较低,在贸易网络中为核心出口国;第三,主要存在3个贸易社团,社团内进口国、出口国、中介国分工较为明显。利用时间指数随机图模型(TERGM)对生姜贸易网络动态演变的内在机制进行分析,实证结果显示生姜贸易网络存在互惠性、多连通性以及时间依赖性;贸易关系接受者经济效应明显,相同的语言、宗教以及较短的距离会促进贸易关系的形成。

China is the largest ginger exporter,and its export growth mainly relies on the market scale effect.Studying the world ginger trade pattern and internal mechanism can better understand China's ginger trade.Based on the ginger trade data of 190 countries in the world collected by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations from 2000 to 2021,and using social network analysis,a global ginger trade network was constructed to analyze the ginger trade network from network structure,node characteristics,network efficiency and trade associations.The study found that firstly,the network had strong connectivity and a high clustering coefficient.However,the average path was short,leading to the phenomenon of small worlds.Secondly,China had a high degree of export and weighted export,with low intermediary centrality,and was the core exporter in the trade network.Thirdly,there were three main trade associations,and the division of labor among importers,exporters and intermediaries within the associations was relatively obvious.Using the TERGM model to analyze the internal mechanisms of the dynamic evolution of the ginger trade network,the results showed that there was reciprocity,multi-connectivity and time-dependence in the ginger trade network.The economic effects of trade relationship recipients were evident,and the formation of trade relationships was facilitated by the same language,religion and shorter distances.