云南切梢小蠹的潜在分布预测

Predicting the Potential Distribution of Tomicus yunnanensis

本研究旨在揭示云南切梢小蠹潜在适宜区分布的动态变化,以便为其早期监测和防控策略制定提供科学依据。利用最优的MaxEnt模型,预测了当前和未来气候情景下云南切梢小蠹在我国西南地区的潜在适生区,并对其适生等级进行了评估,比较不同时期云南切梢小蠹在西南地区的地理分布变化。结果表明:目前云南切梢小蠹的潜在适生区主要分布在四川的凉山地区、贵州的西部地区、滇中高原、横断山脉的南部地区及云南的文山地区。未来云南切梢小蠹在西藏东部地区、川西高原及横断山脉北部地区的适生区将会扩大,其生境质心将向西北方向迁移。值得注意的是,在高排放情景下,适生区的变化将更为显著,且随着排放情景的增加,其与针叶林的重叠面积将持续扩大。

This study aimed to reveal the dynamic changes in the distribution of potential suitable areas for Tomicus yunnanensis,which is a species native to Yunnan,so as to provide a scientific basis for its early monitoring and the formulation of prevention and control strategies.By using the optimal MaxEnt model,the potential suitable areas for Tomicus yunnanensis in the southwestern region of China under the current and future climate scenarios were predicted,and its suitability levels were also assessed,then the geographical distribution changes of Tomicus yunnanensis in the southwestern region at different times were compared.The results showed that currently,the potential suitable areas for Tomicus yunnanensis were mainly located in the Liangshan area of Sichuan,the western part of Guizhou,the Yunnan Plateau,the southern part of the Hengduan Mountains,and the Wenshan area of Yunnan.However,predictions indicated that in the future,the suitable areas for Tomicus yunnanensis in the eastern part of Tibet,the Sichuan Plateau,and the northern part of the Hengduan Mountains would expand,and its habitat centroid would be shifted towards the northwest.It is worth noting that under the high emission scenario,the changes in suitable areas would be more significant,and with the emission scenario increasing,the overlapping area with coniferous forests would continue to expand.